Julianne Geiger
Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, author and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Inventive Professionals Networking Group.
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By Julianne Geiger – Could 05, 2025, 2:38 PM CDT
US President Donald Trump could have simply mentioned the quiet half out loud, answering analyst questions in regards to the motivation behind OPEC’s choice to unwind its manufacturing cuts greater than anticipated at a time when oil costs are already low.
“We’re in a very good place to settle with Russia as oil costs are down,” President Donald Trump mentioned on Monday, Could 5, referring to ongoing negotiations associated to the warfare in Ukraine.
The remark got here simply days after OPEC shocked markets by saying it might unwind manufacturing cuts for June—thrice greater than most analysts had forecast. The transfer tanked already low oil costs and left merchants scratching their heads over the motivations behind such a transfer.
Now, some observers are connecting the dots: a quota hike makes extra sense if it’s a part of a backroom maneuver orchestrated by Trump to squeeze Moscow by hammering oil revenues. If true, the ache wouldn’t cease on the Kremlin’s doorstep—decrease costs hit all producers, together with OPEC members themselves and even US supermajors.
Trump has repeatedly argued that slashing Russia’s oil money movement is the quickest strategy to finish the Ukraine warfare. By leaning on Riyadh to spice up manufacturing—regardless of already smooth costs—some may even see this as Washington’s try to chop off the Kremlin’s main funding stream on the supply.
Saudi Arabia, in the meantime, has insisted its actions are grounded in market fundamentals: simply one other swing of the supply-demand pendulum. However historical past suggests in any other case.
In 2020, Russia refused to affix deeper OPEC cuts. Saudi Arabia then opened the faucets in retaliation, sparking a brutal value warfare. Crude crashed by practically 70%, briefly plunging WTI into unfavorable territory. It was a not-so-subtle reminder that Riyadh is greater than prepared to weaponize oil when geopolitics demand it—and if the Trump administration is looking performs from that very same playbook, Russia could discover itself as soon as once more caught within the crosshairs.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Julianne Geiger
Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, author and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Inventive Professionals Networking Group.
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