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In this current era of the NBA where injuries abound and rest nights are necessary to preserve knees, ankles and all manner of soft tissue, it’s refreshing when the best go against the best with everyone watching. The NBA has officially taken over weekend appointment viewing for sports fans and Sunday Night Basketball on NBC opens with a doubleheader that even the casuals can co-sign.
In the Sunday nightcap, the Oklahoma City Thunder head to Denver to face the Nuggets. The top two teams in the Western Conference, the two NBA championship favorites, the two most recent Most Valuable Player award winners, the league’s top offense against its best defense; what’s not to love?
Thunder vs. Nuggets odds, prediction
Nikola Jokic has been back on the court for just one game after he hyperextended his knee in late December and missed 16 games to recover, and he looked as dominant as ever in his return. Jokic played just 25 minutes and scored 31 points, pulled down 12 rebounds and dished out five assists against the Clippers who have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month.
What’s more interesting about the Nuggets is what they learned while Jokic was on the mend. The injury bug bit them often this season, sidelining four of their five opening night starters for extended periods. Christian Braun has missed 35 games, Aaron Gordon has missed 26, and Cam Johnson has missed 21, as all three are listed as out for tonight.
These injuries have allowed their bench to flourish alongside Jamal Murray, who is having the best season of his career. Peyton Watson has made the biggest leap of anyone on the team. Since he’s become a full-time starter, Watson is averaging 17.4 points per game and shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc, far surpassing the 8.1 points he scored last season. He took full advantage of his opportunity to play more minutes with Jokic out and scored 22.1 points during that 16 game stretch.
While the Nuggets have been thriving because of their depth, the Thunder have hit a rough patch, in part because they haven’t been able to maximize their bench. To be clear, a rough patch for the Thunder is going 14-10, but when a team opens the season 24-1, expectations can get out of whack. At full strength, the Thunder have a phenomenal reserve unit, led by Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Ajay Mitchell.
Mitchell won’t be in the lineup tonight and that’s been a bad sign for the Thunder this season. When he doesn’t suit up, the Thunder are 1-5 this season. The Thunder might be able to weather his absence tonight, but Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams will join Mitchell in street clothes as they recover from injuries. This slew of inactives leaves them extremely thin and forces them to rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s greatness even more than usual.
Even when the Thunder are thin, they are still a great team, but should they be a 7.5-point favorite on the road? I’m skeptical. With their star off the floor, I don’t see how they will make up the margins against a Nuggets group that is firing on all cylinders.
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The trends point to the Nuggets here.
As underdogs, Denver is 11-4 against the spread this season. They have proven that they can win with or without Jokic and I’m betting they can keep this one close at home.
The Pick: Nuggets +7.5 (-102, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
