Just a few months in the past, most followers would have had Sunday’s conflict between Arsenal and Manchester Metropolis circled within the diary as a possible title decider, a conflict between Mikel Arteta’s challengers and Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering champions.
Nonetheless, a critical knee damage suffered by Rodri in September’s return fixture between the groups was the turning level in Metropolis’s season, with their title defence unravelling since that feisty 2-2 draw.
Any hopes of retaining their crown look to be lengthy gone, with Champions League qualification the restrict of their ambitions.
Arsenal, in the meantime, are clinging on within the title race. Getting into matchday 24 six factors behind Liverpool having performed an extra recreation, the Gunners have little – if any – room for error.
Arsenal rounded off their Champions League group-phase marketing campaign with a 2-1 win at Girona on Wednesday and can head straight into the final 16, whereas Metropolis should navigate the play-offs following their nervy 3-1 win over Membership Brugge.
As these two giants return to league motion, we preview the most recent instalment of their rivalry with our Opta-powered preview.
Again on the highway this weekend
#AsahiSuperDry pic.twitter.com/X28ZzF5JZi
— Manchester Metropolis (@ManCity) January 30, 2025
What’s anticipated?
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for Sunday’s recreation, with a 46% likelihood of victory, whereas Metropolis gained 28.6% of our pre-match simulations.
The final two league conferences between these sides have completed stage, with the probabilities of a 3rd successive draw between them rated at 25.4%.
The groups’ final assembly – that aforementioned 2-2 draw on the Etihad Stadium – noticed Arsenal penned again for lengthy intervals after Leandro Trossard was despatched off.
John Stones scored a 98th-minute equaliser with Metropolis’s twenty eighth shot of the second half, the joint-second highest by a group on document (from 2003-04) in a single half of Premier League soccer, solely behind Metropolis’s 34 of their iconic late win over Queens Park Rangers to clinch the title in Might 2012.
Arsenal beat Metropolis 1-0 when the groups final confronted off on the Emirates in October 2023. They final gained consecutive house league video games in opposition to Metropolis between 2005-06 and 2008-09 (a run of 4 straight victories).
Having gained 12 consecutive league video games in opposition to Arsenal between 2017 and 2023, Metropolis at the moment are winless of their final three in opposition to them (two attracts, one loss).
Set-piece masters to satisfy their match?
Arsenal have lacked a leading edge in assault with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus sidelined, main them to chase a brand new ahead in the previous few days of the January switch window.
Nonetheless, their set-piece prowess has allowed them to churn out outcomes. Their 12 objectives through set-pieces (excluding penalties) are essentially the most of any group within the Premier League this season.
Arsenal gamers even have 9 assists straight from set-pieces within the Premier League this time period. That’s the most of any group, with Kai Havertz, Thomas Partey and Declan Rice all chipping in with two apiece and Saka having three.
Metropolis, nonetheless, have solely conceded two objectives from set-pieces excluding penalties in 2024-25, the joint-fewest within the competitors alongside Brentford.
A kind of was a Gabriel Magalhaes header from a nook earlier this season, and 5 of the final 10 Premier League objectives Arsenal have scored in opposition to Metropolis have come from corners.
Arsenal boast an aerial duel success charge of 51.24% within the Premier League this season, a determine solely bettered by six sides. Metropolis, in the meantime, rank fifth-bottom by the identical metric, successful 48.46% of their duels within the air.
Due to this fact, Abdukodir Khusanov – whose mistake led to Metropolis going behind of their 3-1 win over Chelsea final weekend – might face a really totally different type of check. Previous to leaving Lens, the 20-year-old ranked within the eighty fifth percentile amongst centre-backs for aerial duels gained in Ligue 1 in 2024-25, so he ought to possess the attributes to manage.
Haaland firing on all cylinders
As Metropolis’s title defence collapsed within the first half of the season, a lot of the main focus – understandably – targeted on Rodri, along with his damage leaving Metropolis undermanned in midfield.
Nonetheless, an lack of ability to defend counter-attacks was removed from Metropolis’s solely drawback, with their attacking talisman additionally underperforming.
Throughout a run of 13 Premier League video games beginning with that Arsenal fixture on 28 September and ending with a Boxing Day draw with Everton, Haaland solely scored 3 times.
Throughout that spell, Haaland had 47 photographs value 8.2 anticipated objectives (xG) – solely Mohamed Salah (11.12) and Cole Palmer (9.42) had increased worth probabilities in that interval. However the Norwegian underperformed his underlying figures by 5.2 objectives and was outscored by Metropolis defender Josko Gvardiol (4 objectives).
Nonetheless, one thing has clicked for Haaland since he netted in Metropolis’s remaining outing of 2024 – a 2-0 victory at Leicester Metropolis. He has 5 objectives in his final 5 Premier League appearances, exceeding his xG figures by 1.1 (3.9 xG).
He has hit the goal with 81.25% of his photographs in his final 5 league video games (13 of 18), having solely executed so with 55.56% in his earlier 13 (20 of 47).
Whereas Robert Sanchez’s positioning was arguably at fault when he put Metropolis 2-1 up in final week’s win over Chelsea, Haaland confirmed nice composure to lob the Blues goalkeeper after successful a tussle with Trevoh Chalobah.
The 2-time Golden Boot winner seems to be to be approaching prime type once more, which is unhealthy information for Arsenal, in opposition to whom he has scored 3 times in 5 league appearances.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Arsenal – Gabriel Magalhaes
Gabriel scored in opposition to Metropolis earlier this season and has three Premier League objectives general this season – Gvardiol, with 5, is the one defender to outscore the Brazilian.
Arsenal have had a league-high eight objectives scored by defenders general this marketing campaign.
Manchester Metropolis – Phil Foden
Foden has discovered type just lately, following a sluggish begin to the marketing campaign. He scored extra Premier League objectives in January than every other participant, netting six instances from six photographs on course.
He’s the fifth participant on document (2003-04 onwards) to attain as many as six objectives with each shot on course in a month, together with Jermain Defoe in March 2008, Dimitar Berbatov in December 2011, Sergio Agüero in August 2019 and Taiwo Awoniyi in Might 2023 (all six).
