Verdict: Total goals under 2.5
Best odds: 13/10
Bookmaker: Unibet
Champions League nights return to the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, where Arsenal host Bayer Leverkusen in the second leg of their last‑16 tie.
One week ago, the Gunners came within minutes of leaving the BayArena empty‑handed, but a familiar act of late drama rescued them. Kai Havertz converted a last‑minute penalty against his former club to deny Leverkusen a first‑leg win and tilt the balance back towards North London.
Arsenal
Arsenal’s trip to Germany saw them undone by the kind of set‑piece threat they have so consistently used to torment others. Robert Andrich’s header from a corner left Mikel Arteta’s men staring at a rare European loss, as Leverkusen nullified the visitors’ attacking structure for almost the entire match. Yet Arteta’s substitutions changed everything. The introduction of Noni Madueke in place of the subdued Bukayo Saka gave Arsenal the incision they had been missing, and it was Madueke’s sharp footwork that earned the late penalty smashed home by Havertz.
The German forward offered little in the way of celebration against his old side, but the away end erupted, celebrating a result that leaves Arsenal in a far stronger position heading into the return leg. The equaliser ended their perfect Champions League record this season, but it preserved their growing reputation as a side that bends rather than breaks.
The Emirates has been a fortress in European competition. Arsenal have lost just one of their last 22 UEFA home matches — the unforgettable semi‑final defeat to Paris Saint‑Germain last year — and they felt that familiar sense of late‑game surge again on Saturday. Everton’s resistance frustrated the Gunners deep into the Premier League encounter, but a close‑range finish from Viktor Gyökeres and Max Dowman’s historic strike — making him the youngest Premier League scorer ever — eventually secured a 2–0 win and a nine‑point cushion over a fading Manchester City.
Team News
Dowman’s landmark moment dominated post‑match conversation, leaving little room for injury updates. As a result, uncertainty surrounds Jurrien Timber, who limped off in the first half against Everton, as well as Martin Ødegaard and Leandro Trossard, both nursing knocks.
What is certain is that Mikel Merino will miss the second leg while recovering from a foot injury.
Despite Havertz starting at the weekend as a reward for his midweek heroics, he failed to repeat the trick, and Gyökeres is set to return as the central striker. Havertz could be repurposed as a No. 10 should Arteta wish to rest Eberechi Eze, while reintroducing Madueke on the right and pushing Saka into a more central creative role remains an option.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen arrive in North London still unbeaten in the tie — and ironically level with Arsenal in one respect. Just as the Premier League title race currently features a nine‑point gap between first and second, the Bundesliga table reflects the same margin. The German side aided Borussia Dortmund’s title hopes at the weekend by grinding out a 1–1 draw against Bayern Munich, who were reduced to nine men after both Luis Díaz and Nicolás Jackson were dismissed.
It was the fifth stalemate in Leverkusen’s last six matches in all competitions, a pattern that has seen them earn the moniker of “draw specialists.” Yet a repeat on Tuesday would not aid their cause — only a win can extend their Champions League campaign unless they intend to push the tie to penalties at the Emirates. While they have tasted defeat just once in their past 14 matches, the fact that they have only recorded four wins in their last 10 away fixtures raises concerns.
Their history against Arsenal offers little comfort either. Leverkusen are winless in their last three competitive encounters with the Gunners, and their lone previous trip to the Emirates — a preseason meeting in 2024 — ended in a heavy 4–1 loss under then‑manager Xabi Alonso.
Team News
Bayer’s injury situation is also troubling.
Against Bayern Munich, Aleix García — who had opened the scoring — was forced off with a head injury, and he will certainly miss the match should concussion rules apply. Martin Terrier also suffered an ankle issue following Jackson’s reckless challenge, but the coaching staff remain hopeful of a quick recovery. Mark Flekken, Loïc Badé, Arthur, Lucas Vázquez and Eliesse Ben Seghir all remain long‑term absentees.
The return of Alejandro Grimaldo from a domestic suspension provides a much‑needed boost on the flank.
Conclusion
Since their shock setback against Manchester United in January, Arsenal have steadily re‑fortified the Emirates, winning six straight home matches in all competitions and keeping four clean sheets in their last five. Leverkusen’s resilience makes them awkward opponents, but a lack of cutting edge away from home and their streak of draws does them no favours.
The second leg may not deliver fireworks, but Arsenal’s home record, tactical maturity and defensive discipline put them in a strong position to secure a quarter‑final spot — and a probable meeting with tournament revelation Bodo/Glimt.
The Gunners probably won’t need to score more than once or twice, though.
Verdict: Total goals under 2.5
Best odds: 13/10
Bookmaker: Unibet
