The final 16 of this yr’s Champions League has not even begun however with 12 video games left within the Premier League, ideas are already turning to qualifying for subsequent yr’s event.
The race for the highest 4 – or almost certainly 5, however we’ll come again to that later – is fairly tight, as solely eight factors separate Nottingham Forest in third and Aston Villa all the best way down in ninth, with 36 factors left to play for.
Liverpool and Arsenal look sure to succeed in subsequent season’s Champions League and revel in a 20-point and nine-point buffer over fifth spot already. Opta give Liverpool a 100 per cent likelihood of ending within the prime 4, with Arsenal solely a tad much less probably with a 99.9 per cent likelihood.
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Behind them there are greater than half a dozen groups, together with Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea – but in addition shock packages Forest and Bournemouth – in with a shot of constructing it over the road.
With the chasing pack so tightly bunched, and solely eight factors separating as many groups from third to tenth, issues can change in a short time. And that would occur this midweek, with six groups within the combine going through one another earlier than the match day is over.
Third host second as Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to the Metropolis Floor on Wednesday night time, with either side smarting from painful defeats over the weekend – and Forest seeking to keep away from shedding three straight video games for the primary time all season.
Runaway leaders Liverpool host Newcastle, recent from their assured win on the Etihad, with Eddie Howe’s aspect solely trailing Man Metropolis in fourth on aim distinction following their very own win over Forest.
The sport may also act as a costume rehearsal for subsequent month’s Carabao Cup closing, when the Magpies look to raise silverware for the primary time in 70 years stay on Sky Sports activities on March 16.
Bournemouth missed the possibility to leapfrog Metropolis into fourth themselves with a shock 1-0 residence defeat by Wolves on the weekend, and now journey to Brighton – who sit solely three factors off them following back-to-back wins – seeking to keep away from shedding additional floor.
Chelsea’s poor type has dropped them from title contenders to seventh within the desk after three defeats from 4, however basement aspect Southampton go to Stamford Bridge after conceding one other 4 objectives to Brighton on the weekend.
Aston Villa’s comeback win over Chelsea has lifted them two factors off fourth spot, regardless that they continue to be eighth within the desk, and a visit to in-form Crystal Palace is their subsequent problem as they appear to leap additional up the desk.
Will the Premier League have 5 Champions League spots subsequent season?
It’s not sure however may be very probably that England could have at the least 5 spots in subsequent season’s Champions League for the primary time since 2017/18, owing to the Premier League’s efficiency in Europe.
Six of the seven English groups concerned in European competitors this season have made it by way of to the final 16 of their respective tournaments, with solely Man Metropolis absent following their Champions League play-off defeat to Actual Madrid.
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That places England comfortably on the prime of the charts for its European coefficient this season, which is an accumulation of wins and attracts picked up by every nation’s sides and additional factors awarded for a way far they make it in every continental competitors.
The highest-two ranked international locations on the finish of the season will obtain an additional Champions League place subsequent season, with Italy and Spain at present battling it out for second spot.
A phrase of warning, although. England was comfortably prime of the UEFA coefficient record for a lot of final season earlier than a raft of eliminations from European competitors noticed their hopes of an additional qualifying disappear, confining fifth-placed Tottenham to this season’s Europa League as a substitute of the Champions League.
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Ought to the Premier League’s representatives on the continent discover themselves on the unsuitable finish of some extra tough attracts, the identical factor might occur this time round.
There may be one other manner England might find yourself with 5 – or maybe even six spots. That final result would happen if both of Tottenham or Manchester United win this season’s Europa League whereas additionally ending exterior of the qualifying spots within the Premier League.
Who’s almost certainly to succeed in the highest 4 – or 5?
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There should be 12 matches to go however Opta has given each Liverpool and Arsenal an nearly sure likelihood of reaching subsequent season’s Champions League owing to their buffer over the groups beneath them and the issue of their remaining fixtures relative to the opposite sides within the race.
With that in thoughts, Man Metropolis are third-favourites to qualify for subsequent season’s event regardless of sitting behind Forest within the desk – although Nuno Espirito Santo’s aspect have the next-best likelihood of rounding off the highest 4.
Newcastle would be the most eager on seeing a fifth English staff in Europe subsequent season as issues stand, given it’s set to offer them a better-than-evens likelihood of returning to the Champions League after a yr’s absence.
Bournemouth and Chelsea will likewise even be hoping for a fifth spot within the Champions League, with their qualifying prospects leaping by almost 20 per cent for a top-five end in comparison with if they should attain the highest 4.
Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Brentford are additionally in with a marginal likelihood of qualifying, Opta suggests – however with the Premier League prime half so tight, all of that would simply change over the following three months.
Right here is the common place of every Premier League aspect’s subsequent 5 opponents, taking them proper into the ultimate throes of the season…
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Neville: Villa to make prime 4, however can Forest make prime 5?
Sky Sports activities’ Gary Neville on The Gary Neville Podcast:
“I mentioned just a few weeks in the past, I fancied Aston Villa to get into the highest 4 due to Unai Emery they usually’re nonetheless in competitions. However with their choices up entrance now, they have 5 – 6 gamers there that two or three will play, after which they have such choices off the bench, they’ve left themselves in place. Defensively, they want to ensure they will preserve some gamers match, however I believe Villa might end the season robust.
“Nottingham Forest have been completely superb, the story of the season, however I believe they’re going to discover it laborious to hold on.
“I hope they hold on in there, nevertheless it’s going be robust for them. Twelve video games is a protracted option to go. We have written off the title right here with 11 factors, however I nonetheless really feel prefer it might be a protracted 12 video games for Nottingham Forest.
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Gary Neville discusses who he thinks will make the highest 4 within the Premier League this season
“I hope that they do keep there, as a result of it could be superb for the Premier League. We have to see golf equipment which were on the backside one season getting up into the highest six and into the highest 4. The league wants it.
“We’re nervous that the three that come up seem to be they go down fairly a bit, and we do not need that familiarity and that predictability within the league. We’d like it to be probably the most unpredictable league on the planet.
“In the mean time I am saying Man Metropolis, Newcastle and Villa within the prime 5, nevertheless it might simply be Forest and Chelsea. It is actually so shut.
“Bournemouth are a part of that blend as effectively. They have been superb, however I do not suppose they’re going to get into that prime 5. They’re value mentioning in the identical bracket as Nottingham Forest, as being the shock of the season.”
Remaining video games between the groups within the combine…
Groups included with a one-per-cent or higher likelihood of qualifying:
- February 25: Brightonvs Bournemouth
- February 26: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Newcastle
- March 8: Nottingham Forest vs Man Metropolis, Brighton vs Fulham
- March 15: Man Metropolis vs Brighton
- March 16: Arsenal vs Chelsea – stay on Sky Sports activities
- April 1: Arsenal vs Fulham, Brighton vs Aston Villa
- April 5: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Fulham vs Liverpool
- April 12: Bournemouth vs Fulham
- April 19: Aston Villa vs Newcastle, Fulham vs Chelsea
- April 26: Man Metropolis vs Aston Villa
- Might 3: Aston Villa vs Fulham, Brighton vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Liverpool
- Might 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Liverpool vs Arsenal, Newcastle vs Chelsea
- Might 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, Brighton vs Liverpool, Man Metropolis vs Bournemouth
- Might 25: Fulham vs Man Metropolis, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
