Rivers State has continued to draw consideration and voting permutations on how folks could vote in each the presidential and governorship elections.
For the presidential, what could resolve the winner is perhaps the end result of a wierd formulation thus:
PDP 1 to vote for Atiku (PDP). Which means the mainstream Peoples Democratic Social gathering is rooting for the celebration’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
PDP 2 to vote for BAT (APC). Which means the Gov Nyesom Wike faction of the PDP has resolved to stay within the celebration however vote Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
APC 1 to vote for Atiku (PDP): This means that the primary APC faction led by former governor, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, seeing that Wike’s PDP is voting for Tinubu, would counter-vote by voting PDP’s Atiku.
APC 2 to vote for BAT (APC): This means that the brand new faction within the APC the place Gov Wike is alleged to be working underground by means of his kinsman Tony Okocha is voting for Tinubu.
SDP for BAT (APC): Which means the Social Democratic Social gathering (SDP) led within the state by its governorship candidate who was former robust Amaechi ally within the APC, Magnus Abe, is completely supportive of Tinubu.
Different alerts are that Labour Social gathering (LP) will do straight voting by voting Peter Obi all the best way. Additionally, the Motion Alliance (AA) has endorsed Peter Obi’s LP in addition to African Democratic Social gathering (ADP) and most different unattached teams within the state have been rooting for Obi.
Why the fragmentation
Since 1999, Rivers folks had developed clear blocs and voting patterns which consultants simply recognized earlier than voting day. It was all the time clear the place the vast majority of the folks stood.
One other clear indicator was that the minority state all the time wished to be on the facet of the nationwide ruling celebration. This was how the state voted the Peoples Democratic Social gathering (PDP) in all of the elections that happened as much as 2019.
This election yr, political disaster that started in 2012 has so squeezed Rivers State to the purpose of the collapse of celebration supremacy. In that case, the 2 main political events within the state, PDP and APC have so damaged into camps that some are bent on voting its presidential candidate for one cause or the opposite.
Wike is thought for his wars towards Atiku and Iorchia Ayu, the nationwide chairman, whereas Amaechi and Tinubu are mentioned to be removed from better of pals. Amaechi camp believes that Tinubu had aided Wike all of the years suppress his maintain on Rivers APC in order that Amaechi wouldn’t be robust in 2023.
Abe was a robust Amaechi ally till 2015 when he didn’t get the nod to be governor. It has not been the identical anymore till he left the celebration final Might to hitch the SDP, with out severing his deep hyperlinks with Tinubu.
So, Amaechi appears to grasp that each single political enemy round him has deep and secret hyperlinks with Tinubu. He too, in line with his shut aides, started to distance himself from Tinubu. What performed out on the APC primaries in Abuja in Might 2022 and what occurred when Tinubu flagged off his rally in Port Harcourt few weeks again appeared to seal all speculations and fears.
So, for political survival, he appears to steer his loyalists towards Atiku so Wike can have all of Tinubu.
The remainder of Rivers folks and people not connected to celebration appear wanting to vote Peter Obi.
On this rating, many see a detailed name amongst the three gladiators: Tinubu, Atiku, Obi. The enmity is so fierce that every individual thinks if the opposite wins, he would wipe off the face of political relevance.
That may very well be why Rivers State election lately appears like warfare and the warfare appears to have began with bombings, assassination makes an attempt, capturing, frame-ups, and many others. This will even be why Rivers State and the South East appear to be probably the most risky areas within the elections, and all eyes appear to give attention to these two areas.