I made 193 correct resolved public predictions in a row on Metaculus. Every part that I predicted and resolved over the past 78 days was right. A prediction may have been made over the past yr or longer however the reply was decided in order that the prediction grew to become true or false.
This evaluate to the Metaculus firm account making a collective 13 incorrect predictions out of 291 predictions made that resolved over the identical time interval.
In 2023, I’m rating twenty fifth out of a probable 5000+ Metaculus forecasters for Baseline accuracy. That is probably a prime 0.5% inserting.
Since Jan 1 2023, I made 471 correct predictions out of 480 predictions made. I made 9 incorrect predictions or 2% mistaken and 98% proper.
My prediction errors over 376 days had been fewer than the Metaculus Group revamped 78 days. This was with about 61% extra predictions made.
The Metaculus Group made 44 incorrect predictions out of 929 predictions made since Jan 2, 2023.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Chief and a preferred Science blogger with 1 million readers monthly. His weblog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science Information Weblog. It covers many disruptive know-how and traits together with Area, Robotics, Synthetic Intelligence, Drugs, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Recognized for figuring out innovative applied sciences, he’s presently a Co-Founding father of a startup and fundraiser for top potential early-stage firms. He’s the Head of Analysis for Allocations for deep know-how investments and an Angel Investor at Area Angels.
A frequent speaker at firms, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity College speaker and visitor at quite a few interviews for radio and podcasts. He’s open to public talking and advising engagements.
