Afrigather Omar’s whistle is an iconic signal synonymous with impending trouble from the Baltimore-based hit TV collection “The Wire.” When that very same whistle makes its look late in video games at Camden Yards, you understand visiting groups going through the Orioles are in bother.
As Félix Bautista enters the sport for the Orioles with that accompanying whistle, opposing hitters know that they are tasked with going through considered one of baseball’s most dominant relievers. Since debuting final season, Bautista has a 1.90 ERA and 39.8% strikeout price, each of which rank within the prime 10 amongst relievers with no less than 50 innings.
After posting an outstanding 2.19 ERA and 34.8% strikeout price in 2022, Bautista has taken his sport to a wholly totally different degree in ‘23. In 30 innings, Bautista has a 1.20 ERA and a 50.4% strikeout price, after recording his sixteenth save in a win at Milwaukee on Thursday afternoon. With almost 100 dominant innings below his belt to start his MLB profession, he is firmly established himself as one of many elite relievers within the sport.
Simply two years after starting the ’21 season as a 25-year-old in Excessive-A, Bautista has made an unbelievable leap that has lined him up for his first All-Star choice this yr.
Right here’s extra on how Bautista has blossomed into one of many dominant, most unhittable relievers within the Majors because of his elite fastball-splitter combo.
The next stats are by Wednesday’s video games
The elite of elite fastballs
It’s not hyperbole to say that Bautista owns one of many top-shelf fastballs in baseball.
At a commanding 6-foot-8, Bautista comes at hitters with an explosive fastball with a number of high quality traits you wish to see in a heater. For starters, the pitch is averaging 98.8 mph this season, a determine that trails solely 5 different four-seamers.
Quickest common four-seam velocity, 2023
Min. 100 pitches (304 qualifying four-seamers)
1. Jhoan Duran (MIN): 101.9 mph
2. Ryan Helsley (STL): 99.6 mph
3. Aroldis Chapman (KC): 99.4 mph
4. Carlos Hernández (KC): 99.1 mph
5. Félix Bautista (BAL): 98.8 mph
That is a superb place to start out. If you’re in the identical class because the Durans and Helsleys of the world, it is a good indication of your fastball’s explosiveness. That is not the one sturdy high quality in Bautista’s fastball although.
Bautista additionally generates an above-average spin price on his four-seamer that makes it an explosive “rising” heater. Because of the forces of gravity, a pitch is just not able to really rising however there are these, like Bautista, who excel at making their fastballs drop lower than others, which makes it seem to rise from the batter’s perspective. In Bautista’s case, because of his mixture of measurement, velocity and spin, no pitcher has much less drop on their four-seamer.
Fewest inches of drop on four-seam fastballs, 2023
388 qualifying four-seamers
1. Félix Bautista (BAL): 7.7 inches
2. Ryan Helsley (STL): 9 inches
3-T. Aroldis Chapman (KC): 9.8 inches
3-T. Jeremiah Estrada (CHC): 9.8 inches
5. Spencer Strider (ATL): 9.9 inches
Fittingly, Bautista’s four-seamer has produced gaudy outcomes. Bautista’s heater has generated whiffs on 41.7% of swings, the second-highest whiff price amongst four-seamers (min. 50 swings). His 70 four-seamer whiffs path solely 12 pitchers, all of that are starters; no different reliever has greater than 50 whiffs on their four-seam fastball. Opposing hitters have a measly .158 batting common towards the pitch.
The fastball is not even his most dominant pitch
Bautista owns not one however two elite pitches. Dominant as his fastball could also be, it is Bautista’s splitter that has actually befuddled hitters since 2022.
Few pitches have generated extra swings and misses than Bautista’s splitter. Hitters have swung 215 instances towards the splitter since Bautista debuted final season. They’ve come up empty on 118 of these swings, making Bautista one of many few pitchers who has a pitch that generates whiffs greater than half of the time.
Highest whiff price, particular person pitch, since 2022
Min. 200 swings (793 pitcher-pitch sort mixtures)
1. Andrew Chafin‘s slider (AZ): 60.2%
2. Alex Lange‘s curveball (DET): 55.2%
3. Félix Bautista’s splitter (BAL): 55.1%
4. José Alvarado‘s cutter (PHI): 55.0%
5. Brandon Woodruff‘s changeup (MIL): 54.8%
Since ’22, Bautista’s splitter has a .111 expected wOBA — based mostly on the standard of contact (exit velo / launch angle), strikeouts and walks — which is the second-lowest mark amongst all pitches (min. 300 thrown).
Bautista’s splitter is simply behind Liam Hendriks‘s slider and is forward of Alvarado’s cutter, Luis Garcia‘s slider and Shohei Ohtani‘s splitter. That is good firm to be in.
The devastating fastball-splitter combo
Each pitches are nice in their very own proper nevertheless it’s the best way they play off one another that makes the fastball-splitter mixture so deadly.
“The fastball and splitter come out at principally the identical angle. The one distinction is that the splitter drops off rather more considerably than the fastball,” Bautista informed MLB.com Orioles author Jake Rill by group interpreter Brandon Quinones. “So I believe any time I’m in a position to make it work and be uniform in the best way I throw my pitches, it’s in a position to be rather more efficient for me on the finish of the day.”
Whereas Bautista describes it merely, that is principally the essence of the fastball and splitter’s success. Hitters should gear as much as hit the most effective fastballs that’s persistently positioned up within the zone. When hitters attempt to catch up and get on prime of the fastball and as an alternative get a splitter that drops beneath the zone, they’re put in a helpless place.
His warmth maps additionally reaffirm his means to find every pitch with precision. That solely provides to the problem of creating contact towards Bautista. As he stated, each pitches look the identical popping out of his hand however are doing very various things. Whereas the fastball is staying true and never dropping up within the zone, the splitter is diving within the decrease quadrant of the zone. It is actually a guessing sport after which doing one of the best you’ll be able to towards considered one of his two elite pitches.
As you would possibly anticipate, Bautista is producing strikeouts at a rare price. After operating a powerful 34.8% strikeout price in 2022, it is all the best way as much as 50.4% in ’23. That 15.6% enhance in strikeout price is the third-biggest amongst certified pitchers.
It additionally has Bautista in status firm by way of single-season strikeout price. Solely 4 certified relievers have ever reached a 50% strikeout price in a season, together with Edwin Díaz‘s 50.2% mark final yr.
Highest strikeout price, single season
Certified pitchers
1. Devin Williams (MIL): 53% in 2020
2. Aroldis Chapman (CIN): 52.5% in 2014
3. Félix Bautista (BAL): 50.4% in 2023 (by 61 video games)
4-T. Craig Kimbrel (ATL): 50.2% in 2012
4-T. Edwin Díaz (NYM): 50.2% in 2022
6. Craig Kimbrel (BOS): 49.6% in 2017
Bautista can be producing whiffs on a staggering 47.6% of swings, which might be the fourth-highest whiff price (min. 200 swings) in a single season within the pitch-tracking period (since 2008). He’d be simply the fifth pitcher since ’08 to run a whiff price of no less than 45% in a single season.
These are jaw-dropping numbers however they don’t seem to be in in the slightest degree stunning whenever you watch Bautista pitch. He has the scale, mound presence, elite fastball and bat-missing secondary pitch to help his ascent to the highest tier of relievers.
With the Orioles at 38-24, the third-best file within the Majors and on prime of the AL Wild Card standings, Bautista will play a pivotal position in getting Baltimore again to the playoffs for the primary time since 2016.
If the beginning of his ’23 season is any indication, Bautista is doing all he can to make that risk a actuality.
Jake Rill contributed reporting to this story
