With practically all of the ballots now counted within the 2024 election, we will absolutely consider the efficiency of the nationwide and battleground polls this cycle.

The decision: They weren’t good, however they have been extra proper than improper — particularly given the polling business’s challenges and up to date misses.

Let’s begin with the presidential horse race numbers. The ultimate nationwide NBC Information ballot had Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 49% every, whereas the nationwide RealClearPolitics common of the two-way contest was Harris 48.7%, Trump 48.6%. And The New York Instances’ common was Harris 49%, Trump 48%.

The precise consequence within the common vote because it at the moment stands, which you’ll count on to vary barely amid the final counting of ballots: Trump 49.9%, Harris 48.3%.

The 2024 nationwide polls — on common — barely overstated assist for Harris and understated it for Trump. However they did flip in among the finest performances in presidential polling over the previous decade, in keeping with historic information from the Pew Analysis Heart.

It was actually higher than polling’s large miss in 2020.

The battleground state polls additionally weren’t far off the mark, both, though their misses have been barely bigger than what we noticed within the nationwide polling.

If there’s a notion the polls have been improper in 2024, it’s due much less to the precise stage of polling error and extra to the mistaken impression that political horse race polls will be exact measurements — for instance, that 49%-48% or 50%-48% outcomes can completely predict who’s going to win a contest and by how a lot.

Given polls’ margins of error, traditionally low response charges when reaching voters, completely different assumptions in regards to the citizens and, sure, previous polling misses, anticipating that sort of precision from political polls has turn into a idiot’s errand.

In different phrases, all that these 49%-48% and 50%-48% outcomes can inform us is that the race is shut.

And that’s precisely what the presidential election proved to be nationally and in the important thing battlegrounds.

What else the polls obtained proper

Past signaling that the 2024 presidential election was aggressive and unsure, the polls nailed the political atmospherics that formed the competition.

That included an citizens that principally noticed the nation headed within the improper path, with an incumbent president, Joe Biden, whose approval ranking was caught within the low 40s — a historic hazard zone for the occasion controlling the White Home.

Because it seems, the NBC Information Exit Ballot discovered 73% of voters saying they have been offended or dissatisfied with the nation’s path, and solely 40% accepted of Biden’s job efficiency.

Moreover, the polls foretold most of the key demographic tendencies that ended up defining the 2024 election, together with Trump’s positive factors with Latino voters.

The NBC Information/Telemundo/CNBC Latino ballot was among the many surveys displaying these Trump positive factors nicely earlier than the election. Many polls additionally caught on early to Biden and Democrats’ relative struggles with younger voters in comparison with different latest elections, significantly amongst younger males.

One other factor the polls obtained principally proper within the 2024 election have been Democratic downballot candidates who had been persistently overperforming Biden (when he was within the race) after which Harris (as soon as she grew to become the nominee), in addition to Republican downballot candidates who had been underperforming Trump within the polls.

That dynamic performed out within the election, with Democratic Senate candidates successful in 4 states — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — regardless of Harris shedding in those self same states.

What the polls obtained improper

However the polls, together with the NBC Information survey, erred in overstating the dimensions of the gender hole when it got here to Harris’ assist amongst feminine voters and Trump’s backing amongst males.

In accordance with the exit ballot, Harris received feminine voters by 8 factors, and Trump received males by 13 factors — a 21-point gender hole that was in keeping with latest presidential elections. That was smaller than the 30-point-plus gender hole that the NBC Information ballot had been displaying.

(That mentioned, there was an enormous gender hole when mixed with race and schooling, with Harris successful white ladies with faculty levels by 16 factors, and with Trump successful white males with out faculty levels by 40 factors — a whopping 56-point hole within the margin between these two completely different teams.)

And most importantly, the polls as soon as once more understated Trump’s assist, albeit by a smaller quantity than they did in 2020. That got here regardless of polling outfits recalibrating and utilizing new weighting strategies in their polls in an try to not miss Trump’s voters.

Nonetheless, this was the primary presidential cycle the place many polls confirmed Trump both forward or primarily tied — which wasn’t the case in 2016 or 2020, despite the fact that that’s how these elections turned out in lots of contests.

The combined report on occasion ID

One of many greatest divides within the 2024 polling have been the nationwide polls (together with NBC, CNBC and The Wall Road Journal) displaying Republicans with a bonus in occasion identification, versus different nationwide polls that had Democrats with the lead in occasion ID.

It was the latter group of polls that normally confirmed Harris forward of Trump, though inside the margin of error.

However ultimately, Republicans certainly loved the benefit in occasion ID, in keeping with the exit ballot.

That was a significant story within the 2024 election: There have been extra self-identified Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Mark Murray

Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC Information.