Afrigather A Russian prepare hauls T-62 tanks in June 2022.
Photograph through social media
Ukraine continues to escalate its bombardment of Russian provide strains in southern Ukraine. But it surely may not matter that a lot ultimately. Emphasis on may.
Earlier than daybreak on Sunday, Ukrainian forces—maybe a battery of American-made Excessive-Mobility Artillery Rocket Methods—reportedly struck a 40-car prepare carrying ammunition from provide dumps in occupied Crimea to Russian forces in Kherson Oblast.
The prepare exploded, killing as many as 80 Russians. Video reportedly depicting the blaze circulated on-line Wednesday.
The artillery raid in Brylivka, 20 miles southeast of Kherson, reportedly wrecked the prepare and the rails. It was the fourth time the Ukrainians have destroyed a Russian provide prepare.
“Because of a Ukrainian strike towards a Russian ammunition prepare in Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, it’s extremely unlikely the rail hyperlink connecting Kherson with Crimea stays operational,” the U.Okay. Protection Ministry stated.
That’s an issue for the Russian military, which by no means had sufficient vehicles and thus closely depends on trains to shift provides to front-line forces. The Ukrainian military for weeks now systematically has been severing Russian provide strains in southern Ukraine—blowing up ammo dumps, poking holes in bridges.
The prepare strike compounds the destruction and deepens the availability woes for Russia’s forty ninth Mixed Arms Military, which oversees a lot of the 30 or so battalion tactical teams gathering in and round Kherson.
The Russians can patch bridges and unbend rails, however that takes time. And with each day that passes, the forty ninth CAA attracts down its present provides.
It’s obvious the forty ninth CAA is in bother. It’s much less obvious the availability crunch shall be decisive because the Ukrainian military places extra weight behind its gradual counteroffensive aimed toward liberating Kherson with its strategic port and pre-war inhabitants of 300,000.
Having expended most of its fight energy—first attempting and failing to seize Kyiv after which attempting and succeeding in capturing the dual cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in jap Ukraine’s Donbas area—the Russian military is drained.
It has buried a minimum of 15,000 of its greatest troops. A frantic recruitment drive is elevating just a few new battalions, however the recruits are heading to the entrance with outdated weapons and simply 30 days of coaching.
However the Ukrainian military is drained, too. It additionally has misplaced 1000’s of its greatest troops. Donations of contemporary weaponry are serving to to revive a few of the fight energy the Ukrainians have misplaced in 5 months of brutal preventing, however these weapons are skinny on the bottom.
Certainly, it’s obvious that Kyiv is devoting its latest and greatest artillery, together with the preliminary 16 HIMARS the US is offering, to long-range strikes on Russian provide strains. The identical rockets aren’t out there on to assist front-line troops.
Which is why you’ll be able to learn seemingly contradictory information in the identical few days. It’s true the Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian ammo prepare. But it surely’s additionally true {that a} Ukrainian battalion, defending the village of Pisky in jap Ukraine, is completely outgunned—with simply two small mortars to shoot again towards Russian forces packing 152-millimeter howitzers.
What you’re seeing is 2 exhausted armies playing their dwindling assets on more and more determined operations they hope may—someway, ultimately—contribute to a wider victory.
Ukrainian troops blow up Russian trains. Russian troops assault just a few Ukrainian villages. The struggle grinds on.
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