James Tarkowski’s last-gasp volley left Liverpool reeling in a dramatic conclusion to the ultimate Merseyside derby at Goodison Park again in February.
Timed at 97:07, it was the second-latest aim Liverpool have conceded within the Premier League, since Opta started recording such knowledge in 2006-07, after a Robin van Persie strike for Arsenal in April 2011 (97:10).
A prolonged VAR verify didn’t do a lot to chill the frenzy at Goodison Park, the place temperatures boiled over at full-time.
Curtis Jones and Abdoulaye Doucoure noticed pink, as did Arne Slot and his assistant Sipke Hulshoff.
The Merseyside derby has produced extra pink playing cards than some other fixture in Premier League historical past (25), with the Toffees’ 17 reds in opposition to the Reds additionally essentially the most one staff has in opposition to one other within the competitors, so it isn’t shocking there was a little bit of feistiness.
Slot conceded later that he mustn’t have misplaced his cool, and now the Dutchman can be out to maintain his composure as Liverpool welcome their neighbours to Anfield, the place they’ve solely misplaced as soon as to Everton within the twenty first century.
David Moyes’ facet are unbeaten in 9 league video games, although, which is Everton’s longest such run because the 2016-17 season, beneath Ronald Koeman.
Everton final went longer with out defeat in December 2013 (10 video games). In truth, it’s their longest unbeaten run going right into a league assembly with Liverpool since February 2010 (additionally 9), once they misplaced 1-0 at Anfield, with Moyes on the helm on that event, too.
So, this is not going to be a straightforward job for Liverpool, whose wobble earlier than the worldwide break noticed them drop out of the Champions League and lose meekly to Newcastle United within the EFL Cup last.
Nonetheless, the Reds are runaway leaders within the high flight and, after a two-and-a-half-week break, can be prepared and raring to go.
Right here, we dive into the Opta knowledge forward of Wednesday’s conflict.
What’s anticipated?
Anfield has hardly been a cheerful looking floor for Everton. Nonetheless, there may very well be a very good omen for the Toffees.
They final averted defeat in each Premier League conferences with the Reds in the identical season again in 2020-21. In that marketing campaign, the Goodison derby was drawn 2-2, earlier than Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton went on to win 2-0 at Anfield, with Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson on course, and James Rodriguez pulling the strings in midfield.
And Everton had been arguably the higher staff for a lot of their most up-to-date encounter, having extra pictures (10 to 6) and limiting Liverpool to only 0.62 anticipated targets – that’s the lowest xG complete the Reds have had in any league match this season.
The Toffees, although, appeared to have been undone by a second of magic from Mohamed Salah, earlier than Tarkowski lashed residence for a memorable finale.
Twenty-six of the 65 Premier League conferences between Everton and Liverpool have been drawn, with solely Chelsea versus Man United ending stage extra usually within the competitors (27).
Certainly, Everton have additionally drawn extra Premier League matches than some other facet this season (13), together with every of their final 4 in a row.
However our mannequin will not be forecasting a draw as a possible final result, with the match ending stage in 18.9% of the data-led simulations.
Liverpool’s win chance is available in at a wholesome 66.3%, whereas Everton are given only a 14.8% probability of taking the three factors.
A cheerful derby looking floor
From 120 derbies at Goodison Park, the honours are even: Either side have gained 41 every of these fixtures (D38).
But at Anfield, the report is extra one-sided, particularly within the fashionable period.
Liverpool have gained their final three Premier League residence video games in opposition to Everton, every by a 2-0 scoreline. They final gained extra consecutive residence league Merseyside derbies between 1990 and 1994 (5), whereas they’ve by no means performed so with out conceding.
Certainly, Liverpool have misplaced simply one in all their final 24 Premier League residence video games in opposition to Everton (W14 D9), profitable 5 of the final six at Anfield.
Liverpool are on 99 wins on this fixture. In the event that they win this match, will probably be the fifth time an English league facet has crushed one other 100 occasions because the formation of the Soccer League in 1888 (Arsenal 111 vs Everton, Manchester United 106 vs Aston Villa, Liverpool 103 vs Aston Villa, Arsenal 100 vs Manchester Metropolis).
Slot’s staff have been very good at residence this time period, too, dropping only one league match, with that defeat coming to Nottingham Forest again in September. They’ve gained 11 occasions at Anfield within the league and scored 31 targets.
No staff within the division has gained as many residence matches or scored as many residence targets because the Reds.
Everton, then, would seem to have their work minimize out if they’re to keep up their unbeaten streak.
A very long time coming?
Then once more, data are there to be damaged, and Moyes has a reasonably distinctive report that he’ll want to snap when Wednesday’s sport rolls round.
Moyes has gained none of his 19 Premier League away video games in opposition to Liverpool, the joint-most any supervisor has confronted an opponent on the highway and not using a single victory within the competitors.
Remarkably, that may be a report he shares with himself. He has additionally gone 19 Premier League away matches in opposition to Chelsea with out selecting up a single win.
In his first spell at Everton, Moyes drew six of his 11 league visits to Anfield (L5), together with his final one in Could 2013 (0-0).
And he hardly has an incredible report in opposition to the Reds when factoring in residence matches. Certainly, Moyes has gained simply 4 of his 38 Premier League video games in opposition to Liverpool (D10 L24), a win charge of simply 10.5% – his lowest in opposition to any opponent within the competitors.
Moyes’ staff have proven loads of resilience to maintain their unbeaten run stepping into current weeks, with Jake O’Brien popping up with late equalisers in opposition to each Brentford and West Ham.
11 – Solely Alex Ferguson (27) and Arsène Wenger (15) have been named Premier League supervisor of the month extra occasions than David Moyes (11), who has gained the award for the primary time since March 2013, throughout his first spell as Everton boss. Throwback. pic.twitter.com/DdpyLBlv47
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 14, 2025
Everton’s fundamental risk, although, continues to be from set-pieces, even when they’ve improved in open play since Moyes’ arrival in January.
The Toffees have scored 41% of their Premier League targets this season from non-penalty set-pieces (13/32), a league-high ratio, so Liverpool should be cautious of such conditions – certainly, Beto’s opener within the draw at Goodison got here from a rapidly taken free-kick.
In contrast, Liverpool have scored the bottom share of their targets within the competitors this season from non-penalty set performs at simply 6% (4/69).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has been immediately concerned in eight targets in his final seven Premier League Merseyside derbies (six targets, two assists), each scoring and aiding on this season’s reverse fixture at Goodison Park. The one gamers to attain and help in each of their Premier League matches in opposition to Everton in a single season are Chris Sutton in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.
Solely Steven Gerrard (9) has scored extra Premier League targets in Merseyside derbies than Salah (eight). Because it stands, this would be the Egyptian’s final look on this well-known fixture, so he can be out to surpass Gerrard’s report.
Salah heads into the run-in chasing some massive Premier League data. He’s 9 targets away from matching Erling Haaland’s competition-best haul of 46 targets in a single season, whereas Salah is simply three aim contributions off equalling the single-season report of 47, set by Shearer and Andrew Cole, and each of these hit that determine in 42-game campaigns.
Everton – Beto
Although Dwight McNeil and Iliman Ndiaye have now returned to coaching, Dominic Calvert-Lewin stays out of motion for Everton, that means Beto is as soon as once more prone to lead the road for the guests.
For the reason that begin of February, Beto has netted 5 Premier League targets, a complete bettered by solely Salah’s eight.
His ending could be erratic, although, as evidenced by a 25% shot conversion charge. Whereas definitely respectable, up in opposition to the opposite 4 gamers to have scored a minimum of 4 Premier League targets because the starting of February, the previous Udinese ahead’s conversion charge is the poorest.
Beto has not discovered the online since he scored in a 2-2 draw in opposition to Manchester United on February 22, failing to attain in every of his final three appearances, so a return to scoring type will surely be welcome for Everton.
