S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Nigeria to “positive” from “stable,” while also affirming Nigeria’s long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings at “B-/B.”

According to the ratings body, the revision reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s external, fiscal, economic, and monetary trajectory.

S&P said the positive outlook underscores recent improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, despite Nigeria’s low GDP per capita, weak but gradually strengthening revenue base, and high debt-service burden. “We think authorities are taking steps to improve the economy’s growth prospects and macroeconomic resilience,” the agency said.

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The rating agency noted that structural indicators have begun to improve following the reform momentum maintained since mid-2023. President Bola Tinubu launched sweeping measures during that period, including exchange-rate liberalisation and the removal of petrol subsidies. The government also introduced tighter fiscal controls and stepped-up efforts to boost revenue. Rising oil production has further supported the improving outlook.

S&P said it now expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by an average of 3.7 percent between 2025 and 2028, up from its previous 3.2 percent forecast. This is supported by higher oil output and improving private sector sentiment. Inflation is projected to ease steadily, reaching around 13 percent by 2028.

S&P warned that it could revise the outlook back to stable if Nigeria’s reform programme falters, if debt-servicing pressures rise, or if domestic markets show reduced capacity to absorb government borrowing. Confidence-sensitive capital outflows also pose a downside risk, it said.

Conversely, an upgrade is possible within the next 12 months if economic performance exceeds expectations and fiscal and external indicators strengthen further.