Vikram V, vp and co-group head of company rankings at Indian funding info and credit standing company ICRA Ltd, speaks to pv journal about falling photo voltaic cell and module costs, the affect on Indian pv producers, and the way in which ahead.
From pv magazine India
For PV builders in India, what’s the landed value of modules imported from China, Vietnam and Hong Kong after accounting for all duties, logistics prices, and fall in costs? Are these nonetheless cheaper than modules assembled in India? How has the continual fall in module costs globally affected the pricing by Indian producers?
The costs of the imported mono PERC modules (earlier than obligation and logistics) witnessed a major decline over the previous 15 months, declining to an all-time low of 12-13 cents/watt in December 2023 from the excessive of 27-28 cents/watt seen in This fall FY2022 and decrease than the 23-24 cents/watt seen in December 2022. Additionally, cell costs have declined to 5-6 cents/watt in December 2023 from the height of 16-17 cents/watt in December 2022.
Primarily based on the prevailing cell and module costs, the landed value of imported modules is predicted to be about 19-20 cents/watt, whereas the price of modules sourced from home OEMs utilizing imported cells is predicted to be increased at 22-23 cents/watt.
With ALMM leisure until March 31, 2024 and a drop in module costs, module imports are rising. How can Indian producers keep aggressive?
The imports of photo voltaic cells and modules elevated by 155% to INR 22,992 crore ($2.8 million) in 7M FY2024 from INR 9,020 crore in 7M FY2023, in view of the abeyance of the ALMM order and a pointy decline in photo voltaic PV cell and module costs. Whereas the home OEMs are anticipated to be protected in opposition to imports by the ALMM submit March 31, 2024 (assuming that the abeyance is just not prolonged), the pricing would stay uncovered to international wafer and cell costs given the dependence on imports for key inputs. The Indian photo voltaic OEMs can enhance their competitiveness by backward integration and rising the dimensions of operations.
Widespread content material
Do you count on the autumn in module costs to persist in 2024?
Given the dominance of Chinese language OEMs throughout the photo voltaic PV manufacturing worth chain, the pricing would stay delicate to the availability coming from China together with their capability growth plans. Within the close to time period, the costs are prone to stay subdued.
Do you suppose the module oversupply within the international market could hit the growth plans of Indian producers?
The plans by the Indian producers would stay linked with the safety accessible in opposition to the cheaper imports, i.e., ALMM and BCD regime. If the ALMM order have been to be restored submit March 2024, the home producers are prone to proceed with their growth plans. Nevertheless, the producers ought to concentrate on backward integration, expertise adoption and scaling up their capacities to compete with the worldwide producers.
Provided that the manufacturing capability in India is prone to exceed the home demand if all of the capability growth plans, together with underneath the PLI scheme, have been to fructify, the flexibility of the Indian photo voltaic OEMs to stay aggressive with the worldwide friends can be necessary to realize a respective share within the export markets.
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