Russia’s LPG trade is doing exactly what sanctions usually force it to do: rerouting, not retreating.

New data from industry sources shows Russia nearly doubled liquefied petroleum gas exports to Central Asia and Afghanistan in the first eleven months of this year, sending just over 1 million metric tons into those markets. That surge pushed the region’s share of Russian LPG exports to roughly 36 percent, up from 19 percent a year earlier, after the EU imposed restrictions on Russian LPG imports in December 2024.

It sounds dramatic, but the reality is more transactional.

Europe didn’t vanish overnight, but it did close enough doors to force Russian suppliers to scramble. LPG that once moved west now flows south and east to areas where sanctions enforcement is lighter (and political barriers are lower). Afghanistan has emerged as one of the largest buyers in that region, importing about 418,000 tons, an increase of roughly 50 percent year on year. Some of that volume is moving via Kazrosgaz, Russia’s joint venture with Kazakhstan, which gives the trade additional insulation.

What’s less clear is whether Afghanistan and Central Asia fully replaced Europe in volume terms. The available data doesn’t show Russia exporting more LPG overall. It shows Russia exporting differently. The sharp drop in domestic LPG prices after the EU ban last year suggests that supply briefly outran demand, pointing to displacement rather than growth. In other words, Russia likely lost higher margin European buyers and replaced them with lower margin ones closer to home.

There’s another layer here that matters. Traders say rising Russian LPG shipments to Afghanistan have come partly at the expense of Iran, another sanctioned supplier. That means Afghanistan isn’t necessarily consuming much more LPG than before. It’s simply switching sanctioned sources.

Geopolitically speaking, the shift in LPG flows makes sense. Moscow has steadily deepened ties with the Taliban-led government, being the first government to formally accept an Afghan ambassador. Russia has also expanded energy cooperation to increase its influence in Central and South Asia. LPG is cheap, mobile, and a smart political tool. It keeps vehicles running, homes heated, and relationships warm.

As many shrewd analysts predicted at the onset of sanctions, Russia is still selling. As for Afghanistan, it is still buying.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

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