Final yr, in his speech at Chatham Home, the London-based worldwide affairs assume tank, Bola Tinubu made a profound assertion that has come again to hang-out him, casting a darkish cloud over his latest declaration by the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee, INEC, because the winner of February’s presidential election.
Within the speech, Tinubu mentioned that the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, required below the Electoral Act 2022, would ship “the fairest and freest election” in Nigeria’s historical past. Then, he added: “That is significantly essential as a result of the subsequent president of Nigeria have some powerful decisions to make and won’t be able to take action with questionable electoral mandate.”
That was profound and true. However right here we’re. Regardless of what’s extensively acknowledged as a basically flawed presidential election, devoid of the anticipated use of BVAS, Tinubu says he has a “severe mandate” simply because he’s the beneficiary of the sham ballot, the worst presidential election since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.
However, right here’s the reality. As Tinubu mentioned in his Chatham Home speech, as a result of INEC failed to make use of the BVAS know-how as meant, each for voter authentication and digital transmission of outcomes, and since, because of this failure, the presidential election of February 25 was not free and truthful, not to mention being “the fairest and freest” in Nigeria, Tinubu has a questionable mandate, and lacks legitimacy to control this nation.
We’ll return to the legitimacy situation in a second. However first, a flashback. As common readers of this column will recall, I repeatedly warned {that a} Tinubu victory would carry Nigeria large worldwide embarrassment. Properly, I used to be proper. The reactions of the worldwide group, particularly of Western media, have been fairly adverse. Take just a few examples.
Sadly, Nigeria’s Supreme Courtroom lacks the independence and braveness, it appears, to cancel a presidential ballot, nevertheless basically and materially flawed
Within the London Occasions, Tinubu was described as “a rich kleptocrat”, whose election implies that Nigeria “has changed Muhammadu Buhari, an ailing northern octogenarian Muslim with a fame for monetary propriety, with an ailing southern septuagenarian Muslim with a fame for lavish spending and corruption.” Within the Monetary Occasions, a report says Tinubu “confronted allegations of corruption and questions on his huge wealth”, in addition to a drug-related legal forfeiture in the USA. In diplomatic circles, there are talks about doubts over his pedigree; his age, origins and schooling.
After all, such adverse world notion of the integrity and character of Tinubu, a putative president, will vastly tarnish Nigeria’s worldwide fame and considerably injury the boldness of overseas buyers on this nation. However the hostile world notion of Tinubu and its adverse influence on Nigeria would now be worsened by the abysmal conduct of the presidential election and Tinubu’s questionable electoral mandate.
Which brings us again to legitimacy. Now, we mustn’t confuse constitutional technicalities with legitimacy. One thing might be technically constitutional however lack legitimacy. However, in the end, it’s legitimacy, not mere constitutional technicalities, that ensures lasting peace and stability in a rustic. So, what’s legitimacy?
Students distinguish between course of or enter legitimacy and consequence or output legitimacy. The previous pertains to the equity, transparency and credibility of a course of; the latter considerations the fairness, justice and reasonableness of an consequence. On each counts, Tinubu’s purported victory in final month’s presidential ballot woefully fails probably the most fundamental assessments.
Take course of legitimacy. Each goal observer agrees that the method of the presidential election was basically flawed, with INEC’s failure to make use of the BVAS as anticipated, significantly failing to transmit outcomes electronically and add them on the INEC Outcomes Viewing (IReV) portal. INEC itself has admitted that “problems with logistics, election know-how and behavior of election personnel at totally different ranges” (for which learn their connivance with electoral fraud) adversely affected the presidential election. Consequentially, the manifold irregularities eroded the credibility of the ballot and the official outcomes.
At simply 27%, the turnout was the bottom since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999. Why? Properly, blame widespread voter suppression by political thugs, INEC’s operational failure and, after all, President Buhari’s misguided forex redesign coverage, which, fairly than stopping politicians from bribing voters and INEC officers and mobilising political thugs, really stopped numerous folks from voting on account of a money scarcity.
However past the voting disarray, there have been important irregularities with the counting of votes and transmission of outcomes. The frequent view is that most of the outcomes introduced by INEC didn’t match these from the polling models.
As an example, Yiaga Africa, the election-monitoring NGO, mentioned that Peter Obi, not Tinubu, gained Rivers State. It mentioned Obi gained 50.8% of the votes, not INEC’s determine of 33.3%, whereas Tinubu gained 21.7%, not INEC’s 44.2%. So, for those who take Rivers State from Tinubu’s tally and add it to Obi’s, then Tinubu’s solely gained 11 states, whereas Obi gained 12 plus Abuja. Fact is, photographs suggesting that lots of INEC’s official outcomes didn’t match these on the polling models basically undermine the credibility of the election and the legitimacy of Tinubu’s mandate.
The Economist journal says that Tinubu gained “a flawed election after a chaotically organised vote and messy rely.” In an editorial titled “Nigeria’s badly flawed election fails to set an instance”, the Monetary Occasions says that “if Tinubu’s victory is challenged, the courtroom ought to take an extended onerous look.” However would the judiciary?
In 2017, Kenya’s Supreme Courtroom nullified a presidential election even after world leaders had congratulated the “winner”, but heavens didn’t fall. The identical factor occurred in Malawi in 2020. Sadly, Nigeria’s Supreme Courtroom lacks the independence and braveness, it appears, to cancel a presidential ballot, nevertheless basically and materially flawed.
Which brings us to consequence legitimacy. Fact be advised, even when the courtroom upholds Tinubu’s “victory”, he doesn’t have consequence legitimacy. Give it some thought. He gained solely 37% of the vote, the bottom winner’s share since 1999. Extra folks voted in opposition to him (16m) than for him (8.8m). He gained solely 12 of Nigeria’s 36 states. He misplaced Lagos, Nigeria’s business centre, and Abuja, Nigeria’s political capital. Inform me, the place’s Tinubu’s “severe mandate”?
Now, does Tinubu have a mandate for a Muslim-Muslim presidency? Completely not. You want large help to say a mandate for one thing so divisive in a various nation. But, throughout the nation, North and South, Nigerians overwhelmingly rejected Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket: 16m voted in opposition to it; 8.8m for it. Even Kashim Shettima, Tinubu’s Muslim operating mate was humiliated. Tinubu gained solely one of many six states within the North-East, Shettima’s zone; solely two of the seven states within the North-West, the core Muslim North!
Learn additionally: What should Tinubu’s agenda be?
After all, these relying purely on constitutional technicalities would say Tinubu has a mandate for a Muslim-Muslim presidency. However how can 8.8m, who voted for his agenda, be extra essential than 16m, who rejected it? The Muslim-North, Christian-North, Christian-South and, certainly, Muslim-South (take Osun and Lagos States, with massive Muslim populations) rejected Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim agenda. So, the place’s the legitimacy?
Equally, Tinubu, a Yoruba, lacks inter-ethnic legitimacy. He gained no state within the South-East; just one (Rivers), by some means, within the South-South; and simply seven of the North’s nineteen states, some marginally! Tinubu was overwhelmingly rejected throughout Nigeria. So, the place’s his “severe mandate”?
These “elder statesmen” who rushed to congratulate Tinubu, as a substitute of warning him about his flawed “mandate” and the ethical burden he carries, are totally misguided. Common Ibrahim Babangida described Tinubu’s election as “a brand new daybreak in Nigeria.” Actually? The “evil genius”, the “Maradona”, was usually calling evil good, and good evil! He’s totally flawed!
Fact is, if, after the courtroom problem, Tinubu ultimately turns into president, he’ll face monumental, hydra-headed nationwide crises, deepening Nigeria’s instability. Sadly, past constitutional technicalities, he lacks ethical authority that comes from real mandate, from actual legitimacy. Pity him!
