Donald Trump is being warned that Iran may drag America into a “quagmire” where it will lose the war even if US forces win every battle.
The US and Israel have overwhelming firepower to target Iran.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh laid out how Tehran could thwart a US victory in the conflict.
Warning of another Vietnam War if Trump deploys American soldiers in a “boots on the ground” military offensive in Iran, he told Sky News: “They understand those that dragged them into this war can drag them also into a quagmire.”
Rescuers work in the rubble of residential buildings after air strikes, in the Resalat neighborhood
Rescuers work in the rubble of residential buildings after airstrikes, in the Resalat neighborhood, in Tehran, Iran
Middle East expert Ilan Goldenberg, who served as an Iran team chief at the Department of Defence in Washington, explained the “quagmire” threat facing America.
“The US now finds itself in the naval and air equivalent of the dynamic we faced in Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said.
“It’s a recipe for a quagmire where we win every battle and lose the war.”
Mr Goldenberg continued: “We have overwhelming military dominance and are exacting a tremendous cost.
“But Iran doesn’t need to win battles.
“They just need occasional successes. A small boat hitting a tanker. A drone slipping through defences in the Gulf. A strike on a hotel or oil facility.
“Each incident creates insecurity and drives costs up while reminding everyone that the regime is surviving and fighting.”
A tanker hit by a suspected drone strike by Iran which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz
Mr Goldenberg’s analysis has echoes of the IRA’s warning after trying to assassinate the British Cabinet including Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with a bomb in the Grand Hotel in Brighton in 1984.
After failing to achieve its aim, the terror group said: “Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once – you will have to be lucky always.”
Diplomatic experts say Trump’s administration appears to have made two major miscalculations.
The first is that Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, if it was hit with a major attack by America and Israel.
Former British ambassador to Washington Lord Darroch believes at least part of the US plan on the Iran attack was made up “on the hoof”.
The second miscalculation is that the US president did not expect Iran to unleash waves of drone and missile attacks on Gulf states, which has meant the conflict has rapidly escalated.
A smoke plume which rose from a fire at Dubai International Airport after a ‘drone-related incident’ on a fuel depot
Leading defence expert Professor Michael Clarke laid out how challenging such a military operation would be, with navy ships escorting commercial tankers through the strait.
Air defence destroyers would have to operate along the Gulf’s coastline to provide air defence against missiles and drones fired from Iran.
Airstrikes further inland in Iran would be needed to destroy military sites which could threaten the maritime operation.
If it included six giant tankers, and warships at the front and back, a convoy could be 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) long given the distance apart which they would be required to keep, explained Prof Clarke, so it would be a very large, slow-moving target for Iranian drones, missiles and fast attack boats.
Mr Goldenberg said the Trump administration had set the bar for the US objectives “far too high” with the aim of regime change in Tehran, rather than limiting it to further destroying Iran’s nuclear programme.
“The options for ending this war now are all bad, added Mr Goldenberg , listing trying to secure the entire Gulf and Middle East “indefinitely”, seeking to seize Iran’s nuclear material, or capturing Kharg Island.
“The least bad option is the classic diplomatic off-ramp,” he argued.
“The US declares that Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded, which is how the Pentagon always saw the purpose of the war. Iran declares victory for surviving and demonstrating it can still threaten regional actors.
“It would feel unsatisfying. But this is the inevitable outcome anyway.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
While Trump is unpredictable, his unpredictability is predictable.
So, it appears entirely possible that he could call off US airstrikes on Iran and declare victory even if the country might be left with an equally, or even more, hardline regime in Tehran, under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, than when his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was in charge.