Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 19/10
Bookmaker: ZetBet
In the first match of a potentially decisive World Cup 2026 qualifying double-header, Northern Ireland will host Group A leaders Slovakia at Windsor Park on Friday night — a contest that could have a major bearing on the race for automatic qualification.
Michael O’Neill’s men find themselves sitting second in the standings, three points behind Slovakia, who have made the perfect start by winning both of their opening matches, including a famous victory over tournament favourites Germany. For the home side, maintaining their impressive form in Belfast has become crucial, particularly with another tough test to follow during this international window.
Northern Ireland
After opening their campaign with a confident 3-1 win away to Luxembourg, Northern Ireland were brought back down to earth in Germany, losing by the same scoreline. The match in Frankfurt briefly promised a shock when Isaac Price struck his 10th international goal to equalise, but two rapid-fire responses from Nadiem Amiri and Florian Wirtz turned the tide for the hosts.
Despite the defeat, there were positives for O’Neill to take. His youthful, energetic side matched Germany for long spells, showing tactical discipline and resilience that suggest they are building something sustainable under his renewed leadership. O’Neill, who guided Northern Ireland to Euro 2016 during his first spell in charge, has steadily restored belief since returning, and Windsor Park has once again become a fortress of sorts. The Green and White Army have won their last four competitive home fixtures without conceding, albeit against less formidable opposition than Slovakia.
Friday’s test will therefore be an important barometer of progress. Forty years will have passed since Northern Ireland’s last appearance at a World Cup — in Mexico 1986 — and a full decade since their European Championship adventure in France. A positive result here would keep that dream alive, but another defeat could leave qualification hopes hanging by a thread. The hosts will also have added motivation, recalling that Slovakia ended their Euro 2020 ambitions in this very stadium five years ago, snatching a 2-1 win after extra time.
Team News
O’Neill’s options are bolstered this month by the return of several regulars, including Daniel Ballard, Conor Hazard, Brodie Spencer, Ciaron Brown and Paul Smyth, all of whom missed the September fixtures. Ross McCausland also earns a recall, while veteran striker Josh Magennis is back after nearly a year away from the international setup.
However, goalkeeper Pierce Charles remains sidelined with a shoulder injury, meaning Bailey Peacock-Farrell — who recently reached the 50-cap milestone — will once again deputise between the posts. West Bromwich Albion’s Isaac Price, in superb form with eight goals in his last nine internationals, is expected to be the focal point of O’Neill’s attack.
Slovakia
For their part, Slovakia enter this contest in buoyant mood. Francesco Calzona’s well-drilled team have already taken control of Group A, winning both of their opening qualifiers and keeping consecutive clean sheets. The standout result came in Bratislava, where they stunned Germany 2-0 — only the fourth time the Germans have ever lost a World Cup qualifier. That performance was followed by a more laboured 2-1 win over Luxembourg, salvaged in the final minute by substitute Tomas Rigo.
It was not a flawless display, but Slovakia’s defensive structure remains one of the most reliable in European qualifying. They have kept four clean sheets and conceded just once in their last five competitive matches, a testament to Calzona’s organisation and the leadership of captain Milan Skriniar at the back. Napoli’s Stanislav Lobotka will once again be the metronome in midfield, tasked with dictating the tempo and transitioning play into the attacking third, where David Strelec provides the main cutting edge. The Middlesbrough striker has scored five times in his last 11 international outings and should be flanked by Feyenoord’s promising winger Leo Sauer and the fit-again Lukas Haraslin.
Team News
Calzona is unlikely to make sweeping changes, given his side’s recent consistency, and will rely on his established core of experienced internationals. Strelec will lead the line, with Lobotka and Skriniar certain starters, while Haraslin’s return from injury gives Slovakia additional width and pace in attack.
Conclusion
While Northern Ireland have made clear progress since O’Neill’s return, this encounter represents a significant step up in quality. Slovakia are an experienced, balanced outfit with a defensive solidity that could frustrate the hosts’ youthful front line. O’Neill’s men will draw inspiration from their recent home form and a raucous Windsor Park crowd, but the visitors’ composure and tactical maturity may ultimately make the difference.
A narrow Slovak victory appears the likeliest outcome, though Northern Ireland’s spirited performances suggest they will make their high-flying visitors work hard for every inch.
Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 19/10
Bookmaker: ZetBet