HomeWorld NewsPolls in Virginia Redistricting Measure Show Close Margins and Few Undecided Voters

Polls in Virginia Redistricting Measure Show Close Margins and Few Undecided Voters

Published on

spot_img

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

A redistricting measure is asking voters to temporarily reverse a decision they made less than six years ago.

A voter leaving a poll site at Fairfax Government Center in Fairfax, Va., on Tuesday.Credit…Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Associated Press

Polling in Virginia, while sparse, has generally shown a narrow lead for a Democratic-aligned amendment to the state’s Constitution that would temporarily put redistricting back in the hands of the General Assembly.

Early voting in Virginia showed high turnout, similar to what was seen in last year’s governor’s race. But redistricting is not a strictly partisan issue, and poll results have ranged from the amendment being ahead by eight percentage points to it losing by eight points, with a relatively small percentage of voters undecided.

Polls ahead of California’s similar redistricting measure last November showed more broad support, but there were still large shares of undecided voters until about two weeks before the election, leaving some Democrats anxious about whether turnout among their voters would be low, and if those who did vote would refuse to back the measure on principle.

Both ballot measures are intended to combat President Trump’s efforts to generate Republican districts through redistricting in other states. In Virginia, the referendum asks voters to revisit a 2020 decision in which they overwhelmingly voted to create an independent redistricting commission, stripping the General Assembly of its mapmaking power.

Now those same voters are being asked to temporarily reverse that decision in an attempt to eliminate all but one safe Republican district in the state.

As California’s recent election demonstrated, accurately polling referendums can be difficult. Beyond undecided voters, another central issue is the wording of these survey questions. Ballot language is often intentionally complicated in referendums, leaving pollsters in a tricky position: They can use the actual ballot language and risk confusing respondents, or they can devise their own cleaner wording, which has the potential to skew results. Two of the six polls in Virginia used the actual ballot language.

Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data.

Related Content

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

Latest articles

Rebecca Allen’s return latest part of Liberty’s retooled bench

This free agency period was different for Rebecca Allen than previous ones. Not only because...

US warns it will run out of money to pay airport security workers in coming weeks

US airports could face a new wave of long security lines as early as...

How Long Will Victor Wembanyama Be Out? A Look at NBA’s Concussion Protocol Rules and When Wemby Can Return

San Antonio Spurs fans held their collective breath on Tuesday night at the Frost...

Reminder: Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard From Vampire Survivors Out Now For Switch 1 & 2

Transforming the "original hit" into a tactical deckbuilder by Liam Doolan 2 hours ago If...

More like this

Rebecca Allen’s return latest part of Liberty’s retooled bench

This free agency period was different for Rebecca Allen than previous ones. Not only because...

US warns it will run out of money to pay airport security workers in coming weeks

US airports could face a new wave of long security lines as early as...

How Long Will Victor Wembanyama Be Out? A Look at NBA’s Concussion Protocol Rules and When Wemby Can Return

San Antonio Spurs fans held their collective breath on Tuesday night at the Frost...