What the March pending dwelling gross sales information reveals
Pending dwelling gross sales jumped 6.1% in March amid a slight retreat in mortgage charges from the primary two months of 2025. Although the development from February is important, pending dwelling gross sales nonetheless path final March by 0.6%. At the moment, patrons are nonetheless stricken with mortgage charges within the high-6% vary and shopper confidence is shaken by the commerce warfare that’s roiling markets and main would-be homebuyers to concern for his or her jobs. Although the employment numbers in March didn’t present a lot trigger for concern, American shoppers are carefully attuned to the grim financial information and water cooler chat round them, which can be affecting their selections about when or if to purchase a house.
New dwelling gross sales, that are additionally based mostly on contract signings, had a surprisingly robust month in March, spurred on by the supply of low-cost new stock. Within the current dwelling phase, although, the excessive finish of the market has been outperforming extra inexpensive properties. First-time homebuyers are in a very troublesome place since they don’t have fairness from a earlier dwelling that they will use as a down cost, that means they’re pressured to finance extra of a house buy on the present excessive charges. The power to afford a house is what has saved patrons on the sideline, resulting in the slowdown in gross sales for lower-priced current properties.
Regionally, the Northeast, which has probably the most struggles with inexpensive housing, noticed a month over month decline (-0.5%) in pending dwelling gross sales whereas the South (+9.8%), Midwest (+4.9%), and West (+4.8%) posted features in opposition to February. On a 12 months over 12 months foundation, although, contract signings solely grew within the Midwest (+1.4%) whereas falling within the Northeast (-3.0%), West (-2.0%), and South (-0.4%).
What this implies for patrons, sellers, and the housing market
Pending dwelling gross sales, or contract signings, measure the primary formal step within the dwelling sale transaction, particularly, the purpose when a purchaser and vendor have agreed on the worth and phrases. Pending dwelling gross sales have a tendency to steer current dwelling gross sales by roughly one-to-two months and are an excellent indicator of market situations. Sadly, with out important reduction from mortgage charges or an finish to the fears of recession, the 12 months over 12 months retreat this March could also be an indication of issues to return by way of the height of the 2025 homebuying season.