Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed for the primary time in 2025 after a Shopper Worth Index (CPI) rebase, on decrease petrol prices and a secure naira. Knowledge from the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics on Monday put February’s inflation price at 23.18%, down from 24.48% reported in January 2025.
A decline in diesel and petrol costs because of elevated output from Dangote Refinery helped mood inflation, with a cascading impact on the broader financial system, driving down prices for shoppers and companies alike. Diesel costs dropped by 33% to ₦1,000/liter, whereas petrol costs remained regular round ₦800+ per litre. Meals inflation for February was 23.51%, down from 24.08% recorded in January.
Analysts consider that Nigeria’s inflation is at an inflection level—following the CPI rebasing—and count on inflation to speed up as quickly as April. These analysts now predict that the CBN might fail to succeed in its goal because of world financial components.
“My outlook for 2025 in Nigeria despite the rebasing is a median price of 31% for the 12 months. So, count on worse month-to-month numbers deep into 2025,” mentioned Basil Abia, co-founder of knowledge and analysis agency Veriv Africa. “It would largely not be the fault of Nigeria’s policymakers, however fairly because of world financial components, just like how the pandemic affected Nigeria’s financial system in 2020.”
The Financial Coverage Committee (MPC) in February held rates of interest at 27.50% after assessing current macroeconomic developments—together with change price stability and a gradual slowdown in gas value will increase—and the rebasing of the CPI index.