Investor curiosity in MTN Nigeria’s shares surged in April 2025, fuelled by rising optimism that the nation’s largest telecom operator will return to profitability in Q1 2025. The renewed confidence follows current 50% value hikes, which analysts consider will considerably bolster the corporate’s margins and are anticipated by traders to start reflecting within the firm’s earnings this 12 months.
On April 15, MTN Nigeria’s buying and selling quantity exceeded 11 million items, the best single-day buying and selling quantity for the telco on the Nigerian Change. MTN is predicted to publish its Q1 2025 monetary outcomes on April 29, in the future earlier than its annual common assembly. If the numbers present a revenue, it should mark MTN’s first worthwhile Q1 because the naira’s steep devaluation in 2023, which depleted the corporate’s earnings.
MTN Nigeria’s shares are a key barometer of the nation’s digital future. As the biggest telecom operator in Nigeria, with over 50% market share, MTN is central in connecting tens of tens of millions of Nigerians to voice, information, and digital companies. Its inventory efficiency displays investor sentiment and impacts the corporate’s potential to lift capital, put money into community infrastructure, and develop broadband entry nationwide. To diversify income and strengthen its place within the dwelling broadband market, MTN lately rebranded its fibre-to-the-home service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX. This strategic transfer indicators development potential and should enhance investor confidence.
“Traders are additionally anticipating the general public provide MTN Nigeria introduced on April 12, 2025,” stated Tajudeen Ibrahim, director of analysis and technique at Chapel Hill Denham. “Traders consider MTN Nigeria shares are extraordinarily low cost regardless of the restoration of earnings in This fall.” Chapel Hill Denham has usually been a key monetary advisor and middleman for MTN Nigeria’s capital market actions.
On April 12, MTN Nigeria introduced plans for a second public share providing, aiming to scale back MTN Group’s stake from roughly 76% to 65% to extend native possession. Nonetheless, the corporate has not specified an actual date for this providing. The general public provide is contingent upon MTN Nigeria returning to profitability and resuming dividend funds.
At the moment valued at ₦5.1 trillion, MTN Nigeria is the fourth most capitalised inventory on the NGX and was some of the actively traded equities in the course of the week of April 24. Its share value rose to ₦245, reflecting investor confidence in its turnaround technique.
In distinction, Airtel Africa—the nation’s second-largest telco and probably the most capitalised firm on the NGX—has attracted much less buying and selling exercise, regardless of rising its service tariffs by 50%. Between January 17 and April 17, Airtel Africa recorded a modest buying and selling quantity of simply 336,734 shares throughout 331 offers, averaging about 5,345 shares per day. Its highest each day quantity got here on April 7, with 188,074 shares traded.
Benedict Egwuchukwu, an funding researcher at Afrinvest, defined that Airtel Africa’s low buying and selling exercise is essentially resulting from its standing as an “illiquid inventory”—one which trades sometimes and may be tough to purchase or promote with out considerably affecting its value.
“The shares should not simply out there due to much less demand and provide available in the market,” Egwuchukwu stated.
This shortage is being additional amplified by Airtel Africa’s ongoing $100 million share buy-back program, which goals to repurchase its shares over 12 months to spice up shareholder worth and streamline its capital construction. As shares are purchased again and both cancelled or held in treasury, the variety of shares out there for public buying and selling decreases, making the inventory much more scarce.
In distinction, MTN Nigeria is taken into account a liquid inventory, supported by a big base of energetic patrons and sellers and constantly excessive buying and selling volumes, making it simpler for traders to enter and exit positions with out main value swings.
Regardless of its file exercise in April, MTN Nigeria nonetheless ranked solely forty fourth by buying and selling quantity on the NGX in the course of the interval. For context, Constancy Financial institution, the change’s most traded inventory, noticed greater than 388 million shares change palms in a single day. Nonetheless, the uptick in MTN Nigeria’s buying and selling is a optimistic sign for the corporate because it seems to be to exit two years of losses.
In 2023 and 2024, MTN Nigeria reported steep losses primarily resulting from change charge volatility. In 2024, the corporate posted a ₦400.44 billion loss after tax—a 192% improve from the earlier 12 months, pushed by ₦925 billion in international change losses. Nonetheless, the corporate’s income rose 36% year-on-year to ₦3.36 trillion, underscoring sturdy demand for its information and digital companies.
MTN closed out 2024 on a stronger notice, posting a ₦114.5 billion revenue after tax within the fourth quarter. This return to profitability has boosted investor confidence, suggesting that the worst of its international change challenges could also be behind it. Analysts now view MTN Nigeria as being on a secure trajectory towards sustained earnings development and probably resuming common dividend payouts.
Nonetheless, important challenges stay. Inflation continues to rise, eroding shopper spending energy, and tens of millions extra Nigerians are falling into poverty. In keeping with the World Financial institution’s newest report, almost 47% of the inhabitants lives under the nationwide poverty line. For MTN, this rising financial hardship interprets right into a shrinking buyer base with much less disposable revenue, probably dampening demand for its telecom companies.