Lithuania is signaling it may strike its own critical minerals deal with Washington if the EU can’t finalize a bloc-wide agreement quickly enough, a top Lithuanian official told Bloomberg this week. If it follows through, it could become the first EU member to break ranks and pursue a standalone minerals pact with the U.S., potentially setting off a domino effect among other security-focused states in Eastern Europe.

Lithuania’s goal is to secure reliable access to the materials its engineering and defense sectors depend on. Vilnius wants to plug into U.S.-aligned supply chains that bypass China’s dominance in critical minerals processing and refining.

For a small frontline NATO state, this isn’t merely symbolism. Rare earth magnets, battery metals, gallium, and germanium are all inputs for electronics, weapons systems, and advanced manufacturing. China may not mine all of these, but it does control much of the refining capacity, which is where the leverage currently sits. Adding a layer of urgency is China’s recent tightening of export control on rare earths and other strategic minerals last year.

If Brussels moves slowly, as is often the case with entities made up of so many parts, Lithuania appears willing to move alone. The Commission is much more fond of structured, reciprocal agreements rather than member states cutting their own side deals. If Lithuania gets tired of the EU’s foot-dragging moves that could conceivably span years, it could lead to sourcing arrangements, joint projects in third countries, or cooperation on processing and recycling.

The US, of course, is prone to encourage direct partnerships as it builds a wider coalition to counter China’s critical minerals dominance with regard to processing and refining.

The bigger picture is clear: in today’s market, critical minerals policy is defense policy by another name. Lithuania wants certainty. If it can’t get it through the EU fast enough, it’s prepared to get it directly from Washington.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

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