Afrigather This speedy enhance is because of a number of elements, one in all which was the delayed implementation of the Authorised Listing of Fashions and Producers in April 2024 – which requires tenders to make use of solely modules on the record – and, consequently, decrease demand for home photo voltaic modules throughout the transition interval. One other key issue was the chance for Indian photo voltaic producers to diversify their income and promote their merchandise at a better price.
IEEFA estimates that revenue margins may very well be between 40-60% larger when exporting modules to the US, regardless of elevated logistics bills. Exports to the US have quickly elevated up to now few years, with India rising fourfold between 2021 and 2023, from 2.2% to 9% share. Final yr the nation surpassed South Korea to be the fifth largest exporter of photo voltaic PV elements to the US.
In 2024 that share dropped to six.1% – as of the primary quarter of 2024 – as a result of US election and the implementation of the ALMM, nonetheless the report highlights that Indian producers count on imports to extend after the election.
Moreover, delays from US photo voltaic manufacturing crops for modules, cells and wafers additional enhance Indian producers’ optics to export its modules within the coming months.
Till not too long ago, the vast majority of exports have been concentrated between Indian photo voltaic producers Waaree Energies, Adani Photo voltaic and Vikram Photo voltaic. Every of the producers exported over half of its annual nameplate capability in FY2024.
Not solely have these corporations exported their home capability to the US, however many Indian producers goal to construct crops within the US, such is the case of Vikram Photo voltaic and Tata Energy, amongst others. In Vikram Photo voltaic’s case, the corporate goals to construct a vertically built-in plant, from ingots to modules, with an annual nameplate capability of 4GW and an funding of as much as US$1.5 billion.
The US Division of Commerce (DOC) unveiled final month its preliminary findings concerning countervailing duties (CVD) on photo voltaic cells imported from Southeast Asia, with the DOC set to use duties to producers with crops in Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
That is solely the primary dedication reached within the ongoing antidumping and countervailing obligation (AD/CVD) investigation, which was launched in April 2024, into imports of crystalline silicon photo voltaic cells, whether or not or not assembled into modules from the 4 Southeast Asian nations talked about above.
With the optics of extra tariffs being utilized by way of the AD/CVD investigation, but in addition Donald Trump’s presidential election victory earlier this month and a name to extend commerce tariffs, India has a extra beneficial consequence to additional enhance its exports of photo voltaic panels to the US.
“Focussing on the US market can profit the Indian PV manufacturing ecosystem. The publicity to the US market will allow Indian PV producers to realize economies of scale, finally enhancing their product high quality and competitiveness,” stated the report’s contributing writer, Vibhuti Garg, Director – South Asia at IEEFA.
Nonetheless, the rise in module exports to markets such because the US or Europe might have an effect on the supply of home provide in India within the subsequent couple of years. IEEFA estimates that 21GW (FY25) and 25GW (FY26) of PV capability shall be out there for the home market, which might fall wanting the nation’s goal so as to add 30GW of capability yearly to fulfill its 2030 renewable power goal. That is regardless of annual module manufacturing of 28GW and 35GW, respectively.
Moreover, India continues to develop its put in manufacturing capability with 11.3GW of modules and 2GW of photo voltaic cells added within the first half of the yr, based on market analysis agency Mercom India. For the reason that Indian authorities known as for feedback on its proposed addition of cells to the ALMM – which might come into power on April 2026 – final September, there was a spike in photo voltaic cell and module capability bulletins. In lower than two months, Indian photo voltaic producers have introduced over 20GW of recent photo voltaic cell capability.
Distributed renewable power, resembling rooftop photo voltaic, must be thought-about, too, because the smaller order sizes might make the home provide of photo voltaic panels in India tough for that phase.
“The availability-demand hole additionally impacts photo voltaic module costs, which is a vital issue for the price-sensitive residential rooftop photo voltaic phase,” added the report’s co-author, Jyoti Gulia, Founder at JMK Analysis.
