Nigeria’s currency, the naira, has hovered around ₦1,535 per U.S. dollar in recent weeks. Yet experts at Comercio Partners believe it could strengthen to about ₦1,400 in the second half of 2025. Their forecast is based on a combination of government actions, oil market trends, and global currency fluctuations.

Current Exchange Rate and Recent Trend

As of Wednesday, the naira traded at ₦1,535.61 to the dollar in the official foreign‑exchange market. That figure marked a small slide from the day before, but still puts the currency about 10 percent weaker than it was earlier this year. 

For many Nigerians, each swing in the rate directly affects the cost of imported goods, from electronics to medicines.

Eurobond Issue Could Boost the Naira

Comercio Partners’ top scenario assumes Nigeria will sell its planned 2025 Eurobond on time and at an attractive yield. In past years, most recently after the December 2024 bond sale, investors from Europe and Asia rushed to buy Nigerian debt. 

They converted their foreign currencies into naira, driving up demand and helping the currency rally. If this year’s bond issue attracts the same level of interest, the naira could firm to around ₦1,400 per dollar.

Other Factors That Can Help

Beyond the Eurobond, the forecast cites three key supports for a stronger naira. First, ongoing government reforms, like clearer fiscal rules and easier business licensing, should keep foreign money flowing in. Second, higher global oil prices would boost Nigeria’s foreign‑exchange earnings from crude exports. 

Third, a weaker U.S. dollar worldwide tends to lift emerging‑market currencies, including the naira. When these forces come together, they create what Comercio calls a “best‑case” backdrop for the currency.

Three Possible Paths for the Naira

Comercio Partners lays out three exchange‑rate paths for the rest of 2025. In the best‑case, the naira strengthens to ₦1,400, reflecting strong fundamentals and market confidence. In a middle, or “base‑case,” 

it stays in its current band between ₦1,500 and ₦1,600, backed by steady oil revenues and central‑bank support. In a worst‑case scenario, triggered by a sharp drop in oil prices, outflows of foreign portfolio funds and global financial shocks, the naira could weaken past ₦1,700 per dollar.

What Regulators Are Doing

At the report launch, Emomotimi Agama, Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, emphasised that a stable, predictable market also needs clear rules. 

He said the SEC is working with fintech firms, blockchain startups and quantum‑research groups to build a regulatory framework that encourages investment without risking market stability. Strong oversight, he noted, helps maintain investor trust in Nigerian assets.

What Lies Ahead for Businesses and Consumers

If the naira does firm toward ₦1,400, importers will pay less in local currency for foreign goods, and overseas travel costs could fall. But exporters may see lower naira earnings when they convert dollars at the stronger rate. 

Policymakers will need to balance these effects to support both sides of trade. Meanwhile, ordinary Nigerians should watch central‑bank announcements and the Eurobond timetable closely. Together, these factors will determine whether the naira gains ground or drifts further away from the ₦1,400 mark by the end of the year.