The 2026 Grammys’ top races feel unusually competitive. Yes, there are repeat fixtures, including Sabrina Carpenter, Kendrick Lamar, Billie Eilish, Chappell Roan, plus long-time Academy magnets like Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars. 

But this year’s big categories aren’t padded with “safe” prestige picks. The fields are stacked with records that actually moved culture, not just critics.

The Recording Academy usually rewards a specific mix: huge commercial reach and that hard-to-quantify sense that a song or album defined the year. With that in mind, here’s how the biggest categories look ,and where I think the trophies should land.

Record of the Year (performance + production)

Nominees: Bad Bunny (DTMF), Sabrina Carpenter (Manchild), Doechii (Anxiety), Billie Eilish (Wildflower), Kendrick Lamar & SZA (Luther), Lady Gaga (Abracadabra), Chappell Roan (The Subway), Rosé & Bruno Mars (APT.)

This lineup is heavy on star power, but the “Record” winner often ends up being the one that combines impact, polish, and undeniable presence. APT. has the scale , the kind of cross-everywhere hit that dominates spaces from clubs to wedding playlists. Doechii has a breakthrough narrative and real heat. Still, Luther feels like the most complete “Grammy record”: huge run, huge performance, and that rare chemistry that sounds like an era, not a moment.

Likely winner: Kendrick Lamar & SZA – Luther
Should win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA – Luther

Album of the Year

Nominees: Bad Bunny (Debí Tirar Más Fotos), Justin Bieber (Swag), Sabrina Carpenter (Man’s Best Friend), Clipse (Let God Sort ‘Em Out), Lady Gaga (Mayhem), Kendrick Lamar (GNX), Leon Thomas (Mutt), Tyler, the Creator (Chromakopia)

Unlike some past years, there isn’t much filler here. The debate is less “what’s respectable?” and more “what carried the year?” Kendrick and Clipse could split rap-leaning votes. Gaga and Carpenter have big brands, but neither project feels like the season’s defining cultural statement. Bad Bunny’s album, however, reads like the year’s most fully realised vision ,ambitious, stylistically rich, and confident from start to finish.

Leon Thomas is the upset possibility: classic songcraft, strong performances, and the kind of “real musician” profile the Academy often likes to reward when the moment is right.

Likely winner: Bad Bunny – Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Should win: Bad Bunny – Debí Tirar Más Fotos

Song of the Year (songwriting)

Nominees: Bad Bunny (DTMF), Sabrina Carpenter (Manchild), Doechii (Anxiety), Billie Eilish (Wildflower), Huntr/x (Golden), Kendrick Lamar & SZA (Luther), Lady Gaga (Abracadabra), Rosé & Bruno Mars (APT.)

This category should be the cleanest “writing” award — even if the Grammys sometimes blur the line. Bad Bunny’s DTMF has emotional weight and strong structure. Wildflower is finely crafted in that Billie way: detailed, uneasy, and melodically precise. APT. is expertly built pop — light on depth, heavy on hook.

The curveball is Golden by Huntr/x: a pop-culture rocket ship with momentum that could carry it over more traditional “songwriter” picks if voters reward phenomenon over pen.

Likely winner: Huntr/x – Golden
Should win: Bad Bunny – DTMF

Best New Artist

Nominees: Olivia Dean, Katseye, The Marías, Addison Rae, Sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, Lola Young

This is the year’s “timing” category. Olivia Dean and Lola Young are the most emotionally convincing writers here; Leon Thomas has strong musicianship and a steady rise. Katseye and Addison Rae represent the modern hit machine, each with significant visibility. If the Academy goes for craft + momentum lining up neatly, Olivia Dean looks best placed.

Likely winner: Olivia Dean
Should win: Olivia Dean

Best Pop Solo Performance

Nominees: Justin Bieber (Daisies), Sabrina Carpenter (Manchild), Lady Gaga (Disease), Chappell Roan (The Subway), Lola Young (Messy)

Carpenter has momentum; Chappell has a voice that can win a room instantly. But the “performance” argument belongs to Lola Young — Messy captures emotional turbulence without losing pop control, which is harder than it sounds.

Likely winner: Chappell Roan – The Subway
Should win: Lola Young – Messy

Best Rock Performance

Nominees: Amyl and the Sniffers (U Should Not Be Doing That), Linkin Park (The Emptiness Machine), Turnstile (Never Enough), Hayley Williams (Mirtazapine), Yungblud (Changes – Live…)

Linkin Park has the narrative strength and a big modern rock single that voters can easily rally around. But Yungblud’s live performance is the kind of vocal swing that, if voters judge performance literally, deserves the trophy.

Likely winner: Linkin Park – The Emptiness Machine
Should win: Yungblud – Changes (Live)

Best Rap Performance

Nominees: Cardi B (Outside), Clipse (Chains & Whips ft Kendrick Lamar & Pharrell Williams), Doechii (Anxiety), Kendrick Lamar (TV Off ft Lefty Gunplay), Tyler, the Creator (Darling, I ft Teezo Touchdown)

This feels like Clipse’s “return” year — a strong track, heavyweight features, and a storyline the Academy loves. Doechii has a real case, but Clipse looks like the consensus landing spot.

Likely winner: Clipse – Chains & Whips
Should win: Clipse – Chains & Whips

Best Country Solo Performance

Nominees: Tyler Childers (Nose on the Grindstone), Shaboozey (Good News), Chris Stapleton (Bad As I Used to Be), Zach Top (I Never Lie), Lainey Wilson (Somewhere Over Laredo)

Stapleton is the traditional Grammy comfort pick, but this category also loves classic country sensibility delivered cleanly. Zach Top fits that brief and has the momentum.

Likely winner: Zach Top – I Never Lie
Should win: Zach Top – I Never Lie