The Federal Government has warned that flooding could hit 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory in 2026, with Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa, Kebbi and many others listed among the areas at risk.
The warning was presented on Wednesday during the public release of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency in Abuja. Government officials said the forecast should not be seen as just another report, but as an early warning meant to help authorities and communities prepare before the peak of the rainy season.
According to the outlook, 14,118 communities in 266 local government areas fall under the high flood-risk category. Another 15,597 communities in 405 local government areas are expected to face moderate flood risk, while 923 communities in 77 local government areas are projected to experience lower levels of flooding. The government said the scale of the threat shows why early action is necessary.
The states listed under the high-risk category include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, alongside the FCT.
The government also warned that many urban centres could face flash flooding because of heavy rainfall, poor drainage, blocked waterways and weak flood-control structures. Cities expected to be affected include Abuja, Lagos, Ibadan, Port Harcourt, Benin City, Calabar, Kano, Kaduna, Warri, Yola, Asaba, Abeokuta and Onitsha.
Coastal and riverine flooding is also expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo due to rising sea levels and tidal surges. Officials said this could disrupt fishing, affect wildlife habitats and create problems for river navigation in those areas.
Speaking at the event, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, said early information can save lives, protect livelihoods and reduce damage to infrastructure.
He said the government is improving hydrological monitoring systems and working more closely with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency to produce more reliable flood forecasts for farmers, planners, disaster managers and other key sectors.
Utsev said the forecast would only be useful if it leads to action on the ground. He called on state governments, local authorities, disaster agencies, farmers and community leaders to study the findings and begin preparations immediately.
He also urged governments to include flood-risk concerns in land-use planning, urban development and infrastructure design, while improving drainage systems and managing floodplains more carefully.
The Director-General of NiHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 flood outlook was produced through a more advanced and data-driven process. He explained that the agency has moved from traditional flood forecasting to a hybrid AI-integrated modelling system aimed at improving accuracy, reducing false alarms and giving earlier warnings.
He added that NiHSA has also upgraded its flood dashboard into a decision-support geo-intelligence system and launched a mobile app to make alerts easier to access.