The European Union may soon hit Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, with a fine for breaking its digital rules, more than two years after the investigation began. 

This case marks one of the EU’s first major tests under its new online content law, aimed at policing how platforms handle content and protect users.

The probe started in December 2023, when the EU accused X of violating the rules and warned that it could face a fine. But for a year, little action was taken, leaving regulators under pressure to show they can enforce the law.

Part of the delay stems from international politics. In the United States, the situation has shifted since 2023. With Donald Trump back as president and maintaining a close relationship with Musk, EU officials have had to weigh the risk of tensions with Washington. 

US officials have already expressed their dislike for the EU’s strict digital rules. In a recent visit to Brussels, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called on the bloc to relax its laws in exchange for lower steel duties, urging the EU to resolve “old cases” like X.

Despite these political pressures, EU regulators insist that US politics have not influenced their legal decisions. Their focus, they say, is on making a strong legal case, especially since they expect challenges from Musk’s side. 

EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen recently said she expects some investigations, including the X probe, to conclude in the coming weeks.

The fine, when it comes, could be significant. The EU is considering whether to base it solely on X’s revenue or on the wider earnings of Musk’s business empire, including Tesla. 

Under the Digital Services Act, the EU can fine companies up to six percent of their global revenue, though any penalty must be approved by the European Commission’s executive team.

The probe itself is wide-ranging. Regulators are looking at how X manages illegal content, misinformation, and transparency in advertising. 

A short-term fine would likely focus on violations from July 2024, when the EU criticized X’s new paid blue checkmarks for misleading users. X tried to respond by adding disclaimers to the checkmarks, but Brussels also noted shortcomings in transparency and access to public data for researchers.

Earlier this year, the EU demanded more details from X about its algorithms and recent changes to the platform. 

With mounting pressure to enforce its rules, the EU is moving closer to taking action before the end of 2025, showing that even a platform backed by one of the world’s richest men is not above the law.