Everlasting religion in Mike Tomlin, a Texans-Cowboys disgrace fest and the very best bets of Week 11

After a collection of Week 10 losses, our resident NFL handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, tilted a bit. After a couple of modest weeks, he fired out 4 performs for 5 models value of bets — his largest wager since an 0 for 3, six-unit loss again in Week 1.

The gamble paid off, however simply barely. A two-win week wound up worthwhile due to his religion within the Los Angeles Chargers, who briefly trailed however nonetheless wound up masking a touchdown-plus unfold at residence in opposition to the Tennessee Titans. That weighted guess received him again to worthwhile on the season and restored my hope that this 12 months could possibly be totally different than the winter Scumbag Slides ™ that preceded it.

Whereas the Scumbag was sweating out a .500 week, I received again on monitor with a pair of winners due to the New Orleans Saints’ post-coach firing bump and the final technique of backing Mike Tomlin within the face of (non-playoff) adversity. Week 11 poses extra alternatives to inflate that bankroll however a ton of toss-up video games and not-quite-trustable residence groups.

The place did we land? The Rhode Island Scumbag’s performs are under; all his evaluation is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag picks observe.

Laying two models on the Chargers offered me with a revenue final week, albeit a small one. The New York Giants (predictably) demonstrated to the world why one ought to NEVER put their religion in Daniel Jones and the Detroit Lions demonstrated how good Vegas is at handicapping.

Christian is beginning to put a long way between us once more, and I could must wager extra aggressively if this development continues. For now, I’m nonetheless attempting to follow endurance and restraint. This will have to vary relying on Week 11.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (two models)

Pittsburgh narrowly escaped with the win in opposition to Washington as as underdog. They need to give you the option to take action once more when Baltimore heads west.

The Ravens have been one of many league’s worst in opposition to the move this season. Now they face the daunting activity of preserving the all the time unpredictable (and entertaining) George “Neo” Pickens in test.

The Mike Tomlin impact can also be an enormous consider my confidence within the Steelers. He’s nice at residence, in division video games and as an underdog.

We have now a clear sweep of conditions occurring right here. Baltimore put up factors as soon as once more final week, however received completely torched by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase within the course of (albeit in a one level victory). Pittsburgh has a significantly better protection and will sustain with Baltimore on the scoreboard. I’m going to again my religion in Tomlin and the Steelers caring for enterprise with a two unit wager on this one.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New York Jets (one unit)

The Jets are in a dying spiral proper now. They regarded utterly damaged final week in opposition to the Arizona Cardinals. Now the host the marginally much less dysfunctional Indianapolis Colts.

Each groups have struggling defenses currently, particularly in opposition to the run. I believe the X-factor is the re-insertion of Anthony Richardson. The Jets had a tough time preserving tabs on Kyler Murray and James Connor final week, permitting for 3 dashing touchdowns. Now they face the 2 headed monster of Richardson and a wholesome Jonathan Taylor.

If Indianapolis can keep away from turnovers, they need to be capable of come out on prime or, on the very least, cowl for one unit.

Houston Texans (-7) at Dallas Cowboys (one unit)

Talking of groups in a dying spiral, right here come the Cowboys. Jerry Jones is hell bent on taking the “Most Dysfunctional Franchise” title from Woody Johnson’s Jets this season.

Their offense was a large number earlier than they misplaced Dak Prescott for the 12 months. The protection has closely regressed since Dan Quinn left for Washington. Gamers are sniping at coaches within the media. Even the recent Texas solar itself has turned in opposition to America’s Crew with a bit of assist from Jones’s disdain for curtains.

All of those elements contribute to what ought to be a get proper recreation for the Texans after their intestine wrenching loss to the seemingly invincible Detroit Lions. Nico Collins ought to be again within the lineup, offering C.J. Stroud a real WR1 once more who can monitor the ball even when Stroud’s offensive line forces him to chuck up contested prayers from the pocket.

Joe Mixon shouldn’t be met with a lot resistance this week as effectively. I hesitate to lean right into a two unit guess due to Houston’s Jekyll and Hyde efficiency final week, however one unit will suffice.

Final week: 2-2, +1 unit
Season thus far: 17-15-1 (.530), +1 unit

My non-Scumbag picks: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 over the Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans -7 over the Dallas Cowboys, Inexperienced Bay Packers -5.5 over the Chicago Bears and Colts-Jets UNDER 45 factors (one unit every)

Geno Smith is 0-4 in opposition to the Niners as a beginning quarterback. He’s received a 2-4 landing:interception ratio in that span and his closest loss got here by 12 factors. Seattle is coming off a bye and nearing a disaster level at 4-5, however the 5-4 49ers are staring up on the Cardinals within the NFC West pecking order and equally in want of balance-restoring wins.

The Cowboys have performed 4 residence video games and misplaced by not less than 4 touchdowns in three of them. Dak Prescott was the quarterback for almost all of these video games, now it’s Cooper Rush.

Issues usually are not getting higher and their solely hope could also be for solar poisoning to get the Texans’ offensive line to play like doofuses a second straight week. I kinda hate taking Houston on the highway given its capability to implode this season, but when anybody offers a get-right recreation this season it’s Dallas.

I don’t like the thought of laying factors on the highway typically, not to mention doing it twice (and as soon as in a divisional rivalry), however Inexperienced Bay has received 10 straight in opposition to the Bears. Chicago’s smallest margin of defeat in that span is seven factors.

The Bears are spiraling and the Packers are coming off a bye week and a disheartening loss that preceded it. I simply don’t suppose this model of the Bears is gonna put within the additional effort for a rival at residence so long as Matt Eberflus is there.

Then there’s Colts-Jets, which appears like both a rock battle or a recreation by which the Jets’ protection comes alive to stifle a returning Anthony Richardson. New York badly wants a get-right recreation and now faces the league’s least correct quarterback (44 p.c completion price!). Both manner, it bodes effectively for the below.

Final week: 2-0, +2 models
Season thus far: 16-11 (.593), +7 models