A fresh debate has opened over Nigeria’s fuel supply as Dangote Refinery and the downstream regulator present different pictures of local petrol output. 

Dangote says it can deliver about 1.5 billion litres of petrol monthly in December 2025 and January 2026, rising to about 1.7 billion litres from February, equivalent to roughly 50 million litres daily.

By contrast, the regulator has cited lower daily supply figures compared with estimated national demand. Dangote has invited officials to verify production volumes and promised more transparency around inventory and output data.

For consumers and businesses, the key question is how much of the supply gap will be covered locally versus through imports. Nigeria has not fully shut the door on refined product imports, so private importers are still expected to play a stabilising role when local supply falls short.

If Dangote’s higher target is achieved and sustained, import dependence could drop during the peak travel season, easing pressure on pump prices and reducing queue risks. This would directly support transport operators, logistics firms and FMCG distributors, and could soften inflation-linked cost pressures.

But if actual daily output remains closer to the regulator’s figure, price outcomes will stay sensitive to global crude swings, shipping costs and FX availability.

The broader business takeaway is that Nigeria’s downstream market is moving into a more competitive phase where data and verification may shape pricing and public trust. 

Over the next month, businesses should track verified daily supply numbers, monitor crude and blending input logistics, and build flexible fuel budgets for Q1 2026.