There has been no feeling-out process for Carlos Alcaraz and his new coaching staff.

The 22-year-old is into the Australian Open semifinals for the first time in his career, and he has yet to drop a set in the tournament. Alcaraz would complete the career Grand Slam if he wins his next two matches.

Alcaraz is a prohibitive -510 favorite over Alexander Zverev in Thursday’s semifinal.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev odds, prediction

The first thing that jumps off the page when sizing up the tale of the tape is that Zverev, the World No. 3, is 6-6 in his career against Alcaraz, and he’s 2-3 since the 2024 Australian Open, where he defeated the six-time Grand Slam champion in the quarterfinals.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the third-best player in the world can provide some resistance to the World No. 1, but the state of play in men’s tennis right now is that it’s Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, then a massive gap, and then the best of the rest.

And right now, it seems like that gap could actually be expanding.

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While Sinner has had some iffy moments during the fortnight Down Under, Alcaraz looks like a man on a mission. Not only has he won 15 sets on the spin, but he’s done it against a tough draw. He made it look relatively easy against World No. 6 and hometown hero Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, and he swept aside Tommy Paul in the Round of 16.

Zverev hasn’t done much wrong in Melbourne, either, but he’s had a much softer run to the semifinals, with only the in-form Learner Tien looking like a real threat to derail the German. Easy draw or not, winning 15 of 19 sets is still impressive, especially at a major.

Zverev’s talent and powerful serve will give him a foundation to beat just about any player on the planet. He should be able to rely on those tools to keep him in this match, but ultimately, his inability to cope in the big moments feels like it will be the difference.

Alcaraz is a monster in high-leverage situations, and I think there’s value in leaning into that by backing him to come out on top in a thriller.

The Play: Alacaraz to win in five sets (+500, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.