The Super Eagles’ World Cup hopes are hanging by a thread after their 1–1 draw with South Africa in Bloemfontein. For many fans, that result felt like the final blow, especially after missing out on the last tournament in Qatar. 

But while the situation looks dire, the door to the 2026 World Cup has not been completely shut. Mathematically, Nigeria still has a chance.

The Direct Route: Winning the Group

FIFA’s rules are clear, only the winners of the nine African qualifying groups qualify automatically. Nigeria currently sits on 11 points, six behind group leaders South Africa, with just two games left to play.

Here’s the situation:

• South Africa are on 17 points with a superior goal difference (+6) and more goals scored (14) than Nigeria (9).
• Nigeria and Benin Republic both have 11 points, though Benin have played a game fewer. If Gernot Rohr’s Benin side beat Rwanda, they will move ahead of Nigeria.

For the Super Eagles to leapfrog both rivals and top the group, a lot needs to go right:

• South Africa must lose their last two matches, and heavily enough to hurt their goal difference.
• Nigeria must win their remaining fixtures against Benin Republic and Lesotho, scoring plenty of goals along the way.
• Benin must drop points in at least one of their three games and maintain their low-scoring form.

If those dominoes fall, Nigeria could still snatch top spot and qualify directly.

The Second Route: Best Runner-Up

If topping the group fails, there’s still the second-chance route. Africa’s format allows the four best runners-up across the nine groups to head into a playoff round, where they can fight for a World Cup ticket.

Currently, Nigeria sits 8th among the second-placed teams, trailing the likes of Gabon (18 points), Madagascar (16), Congo (16), Burkina Faso (15), Cameroon (15), Namibia (15), and Uganda (15). 

Even if the Super Eagles win their final two games, they’ll max out at 17 points—good, but not good enough to catch Gabon, meaning they’re effectively competing for three spots.

For this path to work, Nigeria needs:

• Maximum points (six) from their last two games, with goals to boost their difference.
• Several other contenders to slip. According to analysts, at least a dozen countries, including Burkina Faso, Namibia, Uganda, and Sudan—would need to lose two games, while others like Mali, Guinea, and Liberia would need to drop at least one.

It’s a massive chain of “ifs,” but not impossible.

What you should expect

Even with all the permutations, Nigeria’s chances are slim. Their qualification is no longer in their own hands. 

Too many results depend on what other nations do, and the margins are tight. What makes it more frustrating is that the Super Eagles had the tools to avoid this mess: yet they’ve only managed two wins, one over Rwanda, while going through three different coaches in this qualifying campaign.

Still, as Afrobeats DJ Exclusive famously said: “This is football; anything can happen.” Miracles have happened before in the game, and fans will cling to that hope as the Super Eagles prepare for their final two matches.