By 2027, Nigeria may be standing at the edge of another political turning point, and at the centre of that storm is an unlikely partnership: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). 

Once rivals in a fierce 2023 contest, Atiku and Obi now appear to be teaming up under a relatively small political platform to take on the dominant All Progressives Congress (APC) and challenge President Bola Tinubu’s grip on power.

But the big question being asked across streets, markets, offices, and WhatsApp groups from Kano to Calabar is this: Can this alliance truly work?

Is the alliance really needed?

Nigerians are tired. The price of fuel keeps climbing. The naira has lost face. Salaries can’t keep up with the cost of living. Many feel betrayed by a system that promises much but delivers little. 

So, when two of the biggest opposition names Atiku and  decided to bury the hatchet and align under the ADC, it sent shockwaves across the political space.

Atiku brings decades of experience, a vast northern network, and a sense of stability. Obi, on the other hand, has become a symbol of youth hope especially for voters in the South and urban areas. In 2023, their split handed Tinubu a controversial win. Now, together, they may be trying to correct that mistake.

The ADC, often overlooked in past elections, has suddenly become the gathering ground for Nigeria’s political outcasts and hopefuls. 

From former Senate President David Mark to APC defectors like Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir El-Rufai, the ADC is turning into a magnet for restless political forces looking for a new home.

All about ADC

The decision to adopt the ADC wasn’t random. It was practical. Forming a new party before 2027 would mean wrestling with INEC bureaucracy and time constraints. 

The ADC already has presence in all 36 states, no known crisis, and a reputation (so far) of being relatively clean. It’s the closest thing to neutral ground for politicians fleeing the chaos of PDP and the imploding Labour Party.

But neutrality is not the same as unity. With big names pouring in from different political and ideological backgrounds, tensions are already visible. Atiku sees himself as the logical frontrunner. 

He has run for president multiple times and believes his turn is overdue. Obi’s camp disagrees. For them, Obi’s youth-driven support base and 2023 momentum give him the strongest shot at unseating Tinubu.

And then there’s the ever-sensitive issue of zoning.

Should the next president come from the North or South? It’s a familiar debate, one that has ruined coalitions before and could split this one wide open. A northern ticket might lose youth enthusiasm; a southern candidate could risk northern loyalty. The stakes are high, and no side is backing down.

Publicly, the ADC leadership insists it’s too early to talk about candidates. Internally, however, battles are already underway. While some leaders want the party to mature and grow before diving into presidential ambitions, others are already scheming behind closed doors.

Atiku’s allies argue that the North, especially states like Adamawa and Katsina, hold the key to winning in 2027 and that only someone with Atiku’s reach can flip them. 

Obi’s supporters believe young people and disenchanted voters in cities are the real game-changers and that Obi has already earned their trust.

It’s a dangerous dance. One wrong step, one public outburst, one leaked memo, one misinterpreted zoning statement could fracture the alliance before it even gets to the convention floor.

Even the presence of other heavyweights like El-Rufai, Amaechi, and Malami adds pressure. These are not men who sit quietly on the sidelines. They want a say in who gets what, and managing their ambitions without sparking resentment will be one of ADC’s biggest tests.

Convention that could make or break the coalition

The ADC is expected to hold a national convention in 2026. That event could be the defining moment for the alliance. Will it show unity, maturity, and a fresh vision? Or will it expose the same old political fights Nigerians are tired of?

It’s likely that by then, a compromise will have to emerge: maybe Obi as the face of the campaign and Atiku as a statesman behind the scenes. 

Or maybe an entirely different candidate with support from both men. But getting to that point without blood on the floor will require political discipline rarely seen in Nigerian opposition politics.

Meanwhile, Tinubu’s camp is watching closely. They know the danger this coalition poses. And they are preparing. Infrastructure projects, social investment campaigns, media narratives anything to strengthen Tinubu’s image as a steady hand in turbulent times. If the ADC fumbles, the APC will be ready to paint them as confused and chaotic.

Is Nigeria ready for this kind of Change?

Perhaps the bigger question isn’t whether the alliance will work, but whether Nigerians believe it can. Trust is fragile. Many see the ADC as just another platform for recycled politicians. 

Others are willing to give it a chance especially those who believed in Obi’s movement or who feel abandoned by the PDP.

To win, the ADC must prove it’s not just a shelter for failed ambitions. It must act differently: hold transparent primaries, avoid early zoning drama, and present a united, people-focused message.

That won’t be easy. Already, there are accusations of favouritism. Former ADC candidate Dumebi Kachikwu has accused the leadership of secretly tilting toward Atiku. 

Meanwhile, party figures like Salihu Lukman are calling for calm, warning that personal ambition must take a backseat to national interest.

Whether that message holds will determine whether this coalition becomes a revolution or just another failed experiment.

What to note

Right now, the Atiku and Obi ADC alliance is Nigeria’s most talked-about political gamble. It holds potential, but also peril. With discipline, humility, and strategy, it could finally bring the opposition together and offer a real challenge to the APC.

But if egos flare, ambitions clash, or zoning wars explode, the whole thing could collapse taking with it the hopes of millions looking for an alternative. 2027 is still two years away. But for the ADC, the time to prove itself has already begun.