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Borrowing for growth or mortgaging the future? Nigeria’s subnational debt dilemma

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Nigeria’s states are borrowing at record levels. Lagos leads the charge, with its debt per citizen now over N166,000, fourteen times the national average. Edo, Kaduna, and Cross River are not far behind. BudgIT’s State of States 2025 report paints a stark picture: rapid borrowing is reshaping the federation, creating an uneasy tension between infrastructure ambition and fiscal sustainability.

Yet, borrowing is not inherently dangerous. Productive debt, used to finance roads, railways, ports, and technology, can catalyse economic growth. Cros

Nigeria’s states are borrowing at record levels. Lagos leads the charge, with its debt per citizen now over N166,000, fourteen times the national average. Edo, Kaduna, and Cross River are not far behind. BudgIT’s State of States 2025 report paints a stark picture: rapid borrowing is reshaping the federation, creating an uneasy tension between infrastructure ambition and fiscal sustainability.

Yet, borrowing is not inherently dangerous. Productive debt, used to finance roads, railways, ports, and technology, can catalyse economic growth. Cros

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