As President Bola Tinubu gears up for Tinubu’s 2027 Re-Election,  he faces an array of internal and external challenges that could erode his support. 

While his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), remains officially united, cracks are emerging along deep-seated rivalries and growing public discontent. 

Opposition groups, particularly the African Democratic Congress (ADC), are closely monitoring these fault lines, sensing opportunities to shift the political balance. Here are the five most critical areas of vulnerability:

1. APC Internal Divisions

The APC is an amalgam of former parties, including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and parts of the old People’s Democratic Party. Leaders from each legacy bloc now jostle for influence, appointments, and access to state resources. 

Frustration is growing among governors and power brokers who feel excluded from Tinubu’s inner circle. Rumours of infighting over the vice-presidential slot and high-profile resignations signal that, without careful mediation, these internal tensions could spiral into open rebellion.

2. The Kwankwaso Factor in Kano

Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Kano State, commands a massive personal following in Nigeria’s most populous region. His support can swing hundreds of thousands of votes. So far, Kwankwaso has stayed non-committal, neither fully backing the APC nor joining rival parties. 

If he decides to align with the opposition or form his own bloc, Tinubu’s campaign could lose a crucial foothold in the North-West, transforming Kano from a stronghold into a battleground.

3. Rising Northern Discontent

Insecurity, inflation, and unemployment are particularly acute in northern Nigeria. Many northerners feel their needs, such as improved security and economic investment, have been sidelined. 

The ADC Coalition has already taken over party structures in states like Yobe, Gombe, and Adamawa by tapping into this frustration. If more northern elites and their followers turn away from the APC, Tinubu may find his once-reliable base eroding across a large swath of the country.

4. Perception of Elitist Governance

Tinubu’s administration has emphasised institutional reforms and fiscal discipline. While these measures appeal to technocrats and international investors, many ordinary Nigerians struggle with rising living costs and daily insecurity. 

Critics describe the government as “pro-institution, anti-people,” arguing that policies have not translated into tangible improvements in their lives. Unless the president can convincingly bridge this gap, showing real progress on jobs, power supply, and safety, public dissatisfaction could undercut his re-election drive.

5. The Growing Third-Force Movement

Disillusionment with the two main parties, APC and PDP, has created an opening for a cohesive third-force alliance. The ADC is positioning itself as that credible alternative, unifying smaller parties and disgruntled politicians. 

Early momentum around this coalition suggests it could peel off key votes in swing states. If the ADC maintains its unity and expands its reach, it could deny Tinubu the broad mandate he secured in 2023.