Global commodity prices could fall to a six-year low by 2026 as weak growth meets an expanding oil surplus, the World Bank says in its latest outlook. 

The Bank projects broad declines of roughly 7% in both 2025 and 2026, citing policy uncertainty and tepid demand as key drags across energy and non-energy baskets. 

For oil specifically, rising supply is expected to outweigh consumption, softening benchmarks and filtering through to metals and some agriculturals.

For Nigeria, lower energy prices are a double-edged sword. Cheaper crude can shrink export receipts and foreign-exchange inflows, even as it lowers domestic fuel and logistics costs. 

Non-oil sectors could see mixed effects: manufacturers and farmers may benefit from cheaper inputs, but dollar earnings for commodity exporters could cool. The report also flags policy and geopolitical risks that could jolt prices off this base case.

Analysts say federal and state budgets that rely on optimistic oil assumptions may need buffers through conservative price decks, stronger non-oil revenue, and hedging where feasible. 

For businesses, the guidance is to lock in critical inputs when favourable, shift to more energy-efficient operations, and diversify export markets to cushion volatility. 

Portfolio investors, meanwhile, may rotate toward beneficiaries of lower energy costs while watching currency exposures in commodity-dependent economies.