Verdict: Total goals over 3.5

Best odds: 3/4

Bookmaker: Unibet

The Santiago Bernabéu will host the first El Clásico of the 2025–26 season on Sunday afternoon, and the stakes could not be higher. Real Madrid lead La Liga by two points over second-placed Barcelona, setting up a clash that is about far more than bragging rights—it’s a battle for supremacy in Spain and a statement in Europe.

This rivalry, steeped in history and drama, has delivered unforgettable moments for over a century. Last season, Barcelona dominated all four meetings, including a stunning 4-0 win at the Bernabéu.

Real Madrid now seek revenge under Xabi Alonso, while Hansi Flick’s injury-hit Barcelona aim to prove their resilience.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid have been almost flawless this season, winning 11 of their 12 matches in all competitions. Their only blemish was a 5-2 defeat to Atlético Madrid in September, but they’ve bounced back strongly with five straight wins, including a 1-0 victory over Juventus in midweek Champions League action thanks to Jude Bellingham’s strike.

Domestically, Los Blancos have eight wins from nine league games, scoring 20 goals and conceding nine. They’ve shown attacking depth with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Jr., and rising star Franco Mastantuono leading the line. Bellingham’s return to form adds midfield dynamism, while Arda Güler and Aurélien Tchouaméni provide balance.

The Bernabéu crowd will expect Madrid to dictate the tempo, using their pace on the flanks and pressing high to exploit Barcelona’s defensive vulnerabilities. Alonso’s tactical approach has emphasized quick transitions and positional flexibility, which could be decisive against a Barca side missing key players.

Team News

Real Madrid will be without Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba due to injuries, forcing Xabi Alonso to reshuffle his back line. Dani Carvajal and Trent Alexander-Arnold face late fitness tests, while midfielder Dani Ceballos returns to the squad.

Expect midfielder Federico Valverde to fill in at right-back if neither Carvajal not Alexander-Arnold make it, with Militao and Raul Asencio in central defence.

Up front, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr., and Mastantuono should form a dynamic trio, supported by Bellingham just behind.

Barcelona

Barcelona enter this clash two points behind Madrid, having endured a turbulent start marked by injuries and inconsistency. They were stunned 4-1 by Sevilla before the international break but responded with a 2-1 win over Girona and a 6-1 demolition of Olympiacos in the Champions League, where Marcus Rashford and Lamine Yamal starred.

Barcelona’s hopes rest on youth and creativity. Yamal, Pedri, and Fermin López will need to dictate tempo and provide attacking spark, while Rashford’s pace offers a dangerous outlet on the counter.

Flick’s tactical approach has emphasized quick vertical transitions and pressing high, which could unsettle Madrid’s reshuffled defence. The challenge will be maintaining composure under pressure and finding balance between aggression and control—something Barcelona have struggled with in recent big games.

Team News

Barcelona’s injury list is significant: Lewandowski, Gavi, Dani Olmo, and Ter Stegen are all unavailable.

Jules Kounde and Raphinha remain doubtful, while Flick will serve a suspension. Expect Wojciech Szczesny in goal, with Eric Garcia, Ronald Araujo, and Pau Cubarsí forming the defensive core.

Pedri and De Jong should anchor midfield, while Rashford, Yamal, and Ferran Torres lead the attack. unless Raphinha is deemed ready.

Head-to-Head: A Rivalry Like No Other

This will be the 262nd competitive meeting between the two giants. Real Madrid have 106 wins, Barcelona 104, with 51 draws. Last season, Barcelona swept all four encounters across competitions, scoring 16 goals to Madrid’s seven.

Historically, Clasicos average high drama and goals—last season’s meetings averaged nearly six goals per game.

Conclusion

Real Madrid’s home advantage and attacking depth give them the edge, but Barcelona’s youthful exuberance and recent Clasico dominance cannot be ignored. Expect a high-tempo, emotionally charged contest with goals at both ends.

A draw feels likely given both teams’ vulnerabilities and firepower. It would maintain Madrid’s slender lead while keeping the title race alive. The contest, however, could turn in either direction.

Verdict: Total goals over 3.5

Best odds: 3/4

Bookmaker: Unibet