Nigeria needs to grow its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 per cent in 2025 and next year, or its foreign exchange to trade at N500 per dollar, with a real growth of 5 per cent to quadruple its economy in the next five years, according to Afrinvest West Africa.

President Bola Tinubu has rolled out various market reforms, including scrapping fuel subsidies, floating the naira and overhauling the country’s tax system in a move aimed at boosting the country’s economy, projecting real growth at 7 per cent by 2027 and an ambitious target of hitting a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

“For a 7.0 percent real growth from 2027 to push the economy to $1.0tn by 2030, nominal GDP size must have surpassed $800.0bn by 2026-year-end – implying nominal growth of no less than 40.0 percent in each of 2025 and 2026,” Afrinvest West Africa said in a recent report.

“Alternatively, assuming a real GDP growth cap of 5.0 percent for 2025/2026 (based on world bank and IMF estimate), the naira/USD rate would need to strengthen to above N500.00/$ level from 2027 for the President’s call to crystalise.”

Nigeria is doubling down efforts to revamp its economy and spur growth in key sectors, in what has seen its GDP expand by more than 30 per cent to N372.48 trillion after the rebasing exercise.

However, the country’s economy shrank in dollar terms to the lowest level in a decade to $251 billion due to the steep devaluation of the naira, raising concerns as to the feasibility of the trillion-dollar projection.

While the rebasing improved key ratios such as debt-to-GDP, which declined to 39.6 per cent from 52.1 per cent in 2024, it does not mask the reality that economic expansion remains moderate.

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For context, Nigeria’s real GDP in 2024 printed at 3.8 per cent, the second highest since 2014. The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show Q1:2025 GDP growth at 3.13 per cent y/y, well below the pace required to meet the government’s new target.

Moreover, projections from multilateral lenders like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank point to growth in the range of 3.4 – 3.6 per cent in 2025, rising only marginally to an average of about 3.8 per cent in 2026 – 2027

“Notwithstanding the ongoing effort of the administration vis-a-vis mixed outcome of reforms thus far, the president’s call of a 7.0% GDP growth by 2027 and the quadrupling of the current GDP size to $1.0tn by 2030 lacks fundamental drivers,” analysts at Afrinvest wrote in the report.

Even though the naira has strengthened to its strongest level since February, breaking the longstanding 1,500 range to close at 1,495.25 on Monday. Whether it will climb to N500/$ before 2027 remains to be seen.

The Nigerian government is, however, urged to focus on “accelerated growth” across multiple fronts of the economy simultaneously for the country’s fundamentals to support the President’s ambition.

“This includes lifting oil output to 2.0mbpd baseline, enforcing cost-reflective electricity tariffs alongside targeted subsidies for vulnerable households, maintaining FX market stability and transparency, fully implementing the tax reform agenda, and addressing food security through both targeted social safety nets and security interventions in agricultural regions,” Afrinvest emphasised.