Norwegians began voting Monday in an election where US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war in Ukraine could give a boost to the government led by Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.

Store, a veteran Labour politician, has a slight lead in opinion polls, and analysts said geopolitical uncertainties could push voters to back the perceived stability of a sitting administration.

Much of the campaigning however has focused on domestic issues including the cost of living, healthcare, inequality, education and the possibility of abolishing a wealth tax, which has divided the two main camps.

With the political landscape fragmented, the outcome will depend on which of the nine major parties will clear the four-percent threshold required to get seats in parliament.

An average of September polls has the Labour Party and its allies securing 88 of the 169 seats in Norway’s parliament, the Storting, according to www.pollofpolls.no.

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Voting stations opened at 9:00 am (0700 GMT) and the first projected results are expected after the final polling stations close at 9:00 pm.

A record 1.9 million Norwegians, over 47 percent of the electorate, have already voted early.

“Stability is really important. The security situation in the world is quite unstable, it’s quite an unstable world,” Olav Hetland, a pensioner, told AFP.

With many voters wanting to maintain the status quo, political scientist Johannes Bergh said Store’s long experience in global affairs — his first stint as foreign minister began 20 years ago — could be an advantage.

“The fact that Donald Trump was elected president in the United States, the talk about tariffs, and international trade is much more uncertain, there’s a war in Ukraine — all of those international issues make voters rally around the sitting government,” Bergh said.

Norway, a NATO member, shares a border with Russia in the Arctic and its economy is highly dependent on exports.

 Fractious blocs

Store, who runs a single-party minority government, was also boosted earlier this year by the collapse of its unpopular coalition with the agrarian Centre Party and the return to government of popular ex-NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

Store is likely to need all four of the other left-leaning parties to secure a majority in parliament.

But the left-wing bloc itself is divided over issues including oil drilling, which Labour wants to continue while the Greens insist on phasing it out.

Both parties favour close ties with the European Union and eventually want to join the bloc, but that is opposed by the Centre and the far-left parties, along with most Norwegians.

The far left wants the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the biggest in the world, to divest from Israel, which Labour opposes.

Julie Myrene, a 32-year-old working with customer support for a car brand, told AFP that her vote was influenced by the need to reduce taxes, “because a lot of wealthy Norwegians have moved out”.

The right-wing bloc is also divided, with the Conservatives of former prime minister Erna Solberg recently overtaken by the anti-immigration Progress Party in opinion polls.

Solberg is battling with Progress Party’s Sylvi Listhaug to be the bloc’s prime minister if it secures a majority.

The right-wing bloc also comprises two small centre-right parties including the Liberals, who are at odds with the Progress Party on several issues including the fight against climate change, the European Union and immigration.

AFP