In the first seven months of 2025, total tax collections reached an estimated ₦17.4 trillion, with the non-oil economy supplying roughly three-quarters of that (about ₦13.07 trillion), marking a sharp break from the petro-dominance that had long defined the treasury.

What’s behind the surge

Three forces are pushing in the same direction. First, tax administration has tightened: stronger enforcement and ongoing digitisation have broadened the net and reduced leakages. 

Second, macroeconomic reforms launched since 2023,foreign-exchange changes, petrol subsidy removal, market liberalisation and early tax-policy clean-ups,are pulling more activity into the formal economy where it can be taxed. 

Third, while oil is no longer the main driver, oil-related receipts are recovering on the back of improved output and compliance.

The non-oil engine, in plain terms

The 75% share points to rising contributions from company income tax and VAT across telecoms, finance, manufacturing, trade, and services, areas that are less volatile than crude oil. 

Year-on-year, non-oil taxes grew faster than oil taxes in the January–July window, and the seven-month haul has been described as surpassing the combined take of 2021 and 2022, highlighting how quickly the base has thickened.

Why it matters for budgets and investors

A broader non-oil base stabilises government cash flows and enables states to plan with greater certainty. It can also support lower borrowing needs over time if momentum holds. 

For investors, it signals an economy that is diversifying in practice, not just in policy documents,an important cue for risk pricing and long-term capital.

The durability question

Not every extra naira reflects real growth. High inflation and exchange-rate effects can swell naira-denominated taxes even when volumes lag, and enforcement gains often plateau without deeper reform. 

To lock in progress, Nigeria still needs a medium-term tax blueprint: simpler rules, fewer exemptions, better property and excise systems, and continued investment in digital compliance.

What to watch next

Two dials will tell the story through year-end: the non-oil share (does it remain near 70–75% as conditions normalise?) and the oil-tax rebound (do production and security gains hold without crowding out reform energy?). 

For now, the headline is clear: Nigeria’s tax machine is increasingly powered by the non-oil economy,and the trend looks real.