Nigeria’s Economy Surpasses IMF Projection by 30% After Rebasing
The Nigerian economy has performed 30% better than projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported figures from the rebasing.
The updated data will help improve key fiscal metrics including Nigeria’s ratio of debt as a percentage of GDP, according to the information provided.
Adeyemi Adeniran, the statistician general, said “this is by far the most comprehensive rebasing ever carried out by the bureau” and that “a lot of work was done to ensure that we cover both formal and informal sector activities”.
GDP at current prices stood at 372.8 trillion naira ($243 billion) in 2024, compared with the International Monetary Fund’s $187.6 billion forecast, after the base year for calculating the figure was shifted to 2019.
Economic output was 314 trillion naira in 2023, the NBS said at a press briefing in Abuja on Monday.
The updated data is not expected to have an impact on the central bank’s interest-rate decision when its monetary policy committee meets later on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast officials will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 27.5%.
The upward revision will help improve key fiscal metrics including Nigeria’s ratio of debt as a percentage of GDP.
“This is by far the most comprehensive rebasing ever carried out by the bureau,” Adeyemi said.
The NBS recalculated the value of GDP based on production patterns in 2019, and gave some sectors a bigger weight to better reflect the structure of the economy, such as real estate. Digital activities and pension fund administrators are some of the sectors now being measured.
Nigeria lost its status as Africa’s largest economy in mid-2023, after President Bola Tinubu allowed the naira to float more freely on foreign exchange markets.
The steep depreciation shrank the size of the economy in dollar terms to a much more realistic level, said Razia Khan, head of research for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank.
The previous official naira exchange rate would have inflated the economy to $800 billion, but “around $250 billion seems much more credible,” she said.
The economy expanded an annual 3.1% in the three months through March, compared with 3.8% in the prior quarter, its slowest pace in a year, as the agriculture sector stagnated.
The oil sector grew 1.87% in the first quarter, compared with 4.7% in the prior three months, even as production surpassed the nation’s OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since 2022.
The non-oil sector expanded 3.2% from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.
The weak GDP showing from the first quarter “was largely down to the whole series rebasing,” said Standard Chartered’s Khan.