HONG KONG, Dec 12, 2024 – (ACN Newswire) – Hong Kong’s exports will develop by 4% in 2025, in line with new figures launched at the moment by Hong Kong Commerce Growth Council (HKTDC) Analysis. The forecast, which kinds a part of the HKTDC’s annual Export Outlook, will see Hong Kong’s export ranges proceed on the upward trajectory maintained all through 2024.

Within the final quarter yearly, HKTDC Analysis pronounces an export forecast for the upcoming 12 months, primarily based on a basket of things together with world, regional and native financial efficiency.

Sturdy demand in electronics, ASEAN and Mainland

In accordance with the Export Outlook 2025, electronics loved a 13.5% year-on-year uptick within the first 10 months of the 12 months. Over the approaching 12 months, lots of the components that underpinned the sector’s success in 2024 will stay very a lot in play. Most notably, demand is anticipated to remain constantly sturdy among the many world enterprise neighborhood for AI-enabled programs.

Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Analysis, stated: “Hong Kong’s rise in export ranges in 2025 is more likely to be constantly led by the electronics sector. On the identical time, client gross sales are anticipated to be bolstered by the launch of a brand new technology of AI-integrated smartphones, PCs and different digital gadgets.”

Potential US tariffs loom

Though the underlying pattern stays optimistic, the 2025 Export Outlook additionally highlighted plenty of potential challenges which will influence Hong Kong’s export exercise over the 12 months to return.

These issues stem from the well-publicised dedication on the a part of President-Elect Donald Trump to impose large tariff hikes on items imported to the US from a number of sources, together with Mexico, Canada and Mainland China. If this occurs, it’s extensively anticipated that world commerce flows will probably be adversely affected, whereas the method of commerce diversion will probably be inevitably accelerated. In any such situation, Hong Kong may moderately count on its personal export exercise to be impacted.

Along with the final assumption amongst Hong Kong exporters that any knock-on penalties could solely be minimal, nonetheless, there are additionally indicators that Mainland China’s total stage of commerce has not been unduly constricted by earlier tariff preparations. Certainly, though two-thirds of Mainland Chinese language exports to the US have been topic to tariffs since 2018, Mainland China’s world export share has really risen from 12.7% six years in the past to 14.1% in 2023. There’s additionally some perception that President-Elect Trump’s proposed tariff regime really represents extra of a gap bid in a possible spherical of negotiations than an absolute certainty.

However, the specter of tariff rises, coupled with concern over rising geopolitical uncertainties elsewhere on this planet, each performed an element within the extra cautious sentiments expressed by Hong Kong exporters as a part of the 4Q24 HKTDC Export Confidence Index.

This noticed a fall in each the Present Efficiency Index (from 52.6 in 3Q24 to 50.3 in 4Q24) and the Expectation Index (from 51.4 to 50.0).

Nicholas Fu, Senior Economist, stated: “Exporters are significantly assured of their future prospects with regard to the ASEAN bloc and Mainland China with the respective Market Expectation Sub-Index readings properly above 50 — ASEAN (55.9) and Mainland China (52.7).”

Contrasting fortunes for first and second half in 2025

One clear indication from the general stage of warning recorded for 4Q24 is that exporters could attempt to hedge their bets in 2025 by accelerating their transport schedules to mitigate the doable penalties of further tariffs later within the 12 months. The possible upshot of that is that exercise will probably be way more intense within the first half of 2025, earlier than decelerating sharply within the latter half.

Irina Fan stated: “Whereas 2025 could also be a 12 months of two halves, characterised by differing ranges of exercise, we nonetheless see total export development as more likely to be 4% after factoring within the issues expressed by merchants throughout a spread of worldwide financial uncertainties.”

References

Hong Kong’s Export Outlook 2025: A Yr of Two Halves https://analysis.hktdc.com/en/article/MTg2OTc1MzE0MA

HKTDC Export Index 4Q24: Heightened Uncertainties Set off Exporter Warning https://analysis.hktdc.com/en/article/MTg2OTc0OTM0MA

HKTDC Analysis web site: https://analysis.hktdc.com/en/

Picture obtain: https://bit.ly/49ACrGD

Media enquiries

Please contact the HKTDC’s Communication and Public Affairs Division:

About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Commerce Growth Council (HKTDC) is a statutory physique established in 1966 to advertise, help and develop Hong Kong’s commerce. With 50 places of work globally, together with 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way world funding and enterprise hub. The HKTDC organises worldwide exhibitions, conferences and enterprise missions to create enterprise alternatives for firms, significantly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), within the mainland and worldwide markets. The HKTDC additionally gives up-to-date market insights and product data through analysis stories and digital information channels. For extra data, please go to: www.hktdc.com/aboutus.

Matter: Press launch abstract

Supply: HKTDC

Sectors: Commerce Exhibits, Day by day Information, Regional, Native Biz, Commerce Finance

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