The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime represents a devastating defeat for Iran, the most recent in a string of setbacks which have punctured lengthy held assumptions within the West about Tehran’s navy prowess.

In current months, Iran has proved unable to thwart Israeli covert operations from focusing on key figures within the regime, defend itself from damaging Israeli airstrikes, or shield an ally subsequent door that was a linchpin in its regional proxy community, dubbed the “axis of resistance.”

For many years, Syria has served as a significant land bridge to Iran’s Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, permitting Tehran to ferry weapons to its companions throughout the Syrian border. After a mass rebellion towards Assad in 2011, Russia supplied air energy for Damascus and Iran propped up the brutal ruler with weapons, money, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers and militants from Iranian-backed proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. 

However when Syrian insurgent forces seized Aleppo final month towards poorly educated, demotivated Syrian military troops, Iran was caught off guard at a troublesome second, with its navy depleted from Israeli air raids and its proxy forces in Lebanon decimated from combating with Israel, present and former U.S. officers mentioned. Because the rebels pressed forward, there was no concerted effort to cease the advance with Russian warplanes or Iranian-backed proxy forces. 

The dramatic occasions over the weekend marked “a elementary change within the equation of your complete Center East,” a senior Biden administration official advised reporters on Sunday.“Assad was successfully deserted as a result of his solely mates … Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, not had the capability to assist,” the official added.

Iran’s weakened place has challenged prevailing assumptions in Washington and different capitals about Iran’s energy and resilience, in addition to expectations about how a direct conflict between Israel and Iran would play out, former U.S. intelligence officers and specialists mentioned.

“You may have a sequence of myths which have evaporated over the past yr,” mentioned one former U.S. official.

The USA and different governments had feared an Israeli assault on Iran would produce an amazing response towards Israel by Iran’s proxies. There additionally was a widespread view that Iran’s huge missile arsenal would deter Israel from ever immediately attacking, and if it did, Tehran may overwhelm Israeli air defenses in retaliation. 

And there have been fears {that a} direct conflict between Iran and Israel would end in an open-ended conflagration that will attract america and different international locations. 

None of these situations got here to cross. 

Israeli air raids towards Iran didn’t set off a crippling response from Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq or Yemen. It was unclear whether or not these proxy forces lacked the means and the need to behave extra aggressively, or whether or not Tehran’s management was reluctant to confront Israel immediately, former officers mentioned.

With essential assist from america and its allies, Israel was capable of shoot down many of the ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia armed and educated by Iran, have proved no match for Israel’s navy and intelligence operations, which have killed a lot of its management and penetrated its communications.

These incorrect assumptions about Iran “formed and certainly constrained regional and U.S. coverage on Iran,” mentioned Norman Roule, former senior U.S. intelligence official and senior adviser to United Towards Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that focuses on combating threats posed by Iran.

The lack of Syria as a dependable and subservient ally has seemingly irreparably broken Iran’s proxy community, which Tehran seen as a defensive wall defending Iran and a method of combating international locations with extra highly effective typical militaries, present and former U.S. officers mentioned.

“The autumn of Assad actually places a giant query mark round whether or not the ‘axis of resistance’ continues to be possible,” mentioned Alex Vatanka of the Center East Institute, a Washington-based suppose tank. “Iran paid billions within the final twenty years to determine this ‘ahead protection’ mannequin — and for a very long time it delivered outcomes,” he mentioned.

“However as soon as underneath strain, the mannequin and the Arab companions of Iran have confirmed to lack the capability to face up to strain,” Vatanka added. “It started with Hezbollah and now Assad.”

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice chairman of Iran, wrote on social media shortly earlier than the Assad authorities collapsed that the autumn of the regime “could be some of the important occasions within the historical past of the Center East.” Abtahi added that “resistance within the area could be left with out help. Israel would develop into the dominant pressure.”

Latest occasions, together with the failure to fend off anti-regime insurgent forces in Syria over the previous two weeks, have uncovered a “rot” inside Iran’s navy and safety equipment, Roule mentioned.

“Beginning with the killing of Soleimani in 2020, Iran confronted a sequence of setbacks and defeats that uncovered weaknesses and failures in Iran’s intelligence and safety companies,” Roule mentioned, referring to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the chief of the Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Drive, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020.

“Over the previous yr, Israel accelerated this rot by means of its killing of a lot of skilled IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Hezbollah officers concerned in Syria,” he mentioned.

These officers had many years of expertise in Syria and a community of contacts among the many militants in Iran’s proxy community, together with Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemenis and others. 

“When these officers and their ‘rolodex’ had been misplaced, Iran’s bureaucratic cohesion and effectivity suffered,” Roule mentioned.

Iran’s intelligence companies seem incapable of giving their leaders advance warning about direct threats or disrupting hostile covert operations, in response to Roule and different analysts.

It was unclear why commanders within the Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Drive, which oversees the proxy community and has labored carefully with the Syrian military, didn’t take decisive motion to rescue the Assad regime’s forces. In each Lebanon and Syria in current months, Iran has chosen to not deploy its personal forces in important numbers to assist its companions.

Iran’s supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, “has historically refused to permit Iranian forces to threat themselves to guard proxies,” Roule mentioned.

The lack of Syria has undermined the picture Iran cultivated about its Quds Drive being an elite navy unit capable of defeat its adversaries and shield Shiite populations overseas.

Iran now could have second ideas concerning the Oct. 7 assault on Israel final yr by Iranian-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, which Tehran applauded on the time. The assault, masterminded by the late Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, caught Israel unexpectedly however set off a series of occasions which have undermined Iran on a number of fronts, culminating within the demise of the Assad regime, in response to Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer with expertise within the Center East. 

“The Iranian axis of resistance has crumbled thanks to 1 individual, Yahya Sinwar, who began this on October 7,” Polymeropoulos mentioned.

Though Iran has suffered a blow within the quick time period, it’ll most certainly search to rebuild its proxy forces, presumably by utilizing Yemen as a hub or exploiting potential chaos in Syria after Assad’s exit.

The USA and Arab companions might want to lower off Iran’s skill to dispatch weapons and trainers to Lebanon to make sure that Tehran doesn’t rebuild its militant community, mentioned Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a former U.S. diplomat.

“I feel it’s in our nationwide safety curiosity that we lower off Iran’s capabilities in Syria as a result of that’s how they had been transitioning and transferring weapons to Hezbollah, by means of the bottom in addition to overflight over Iraq and Syria,” Kim advised MSNBC. “And if we’re capable of sever this proper now, this might be not only a setback however a devastating blow.”

With its air defenses, missile arsenal and regional standing broken, Iran should resolve the way to handle its nuclear program and the way to method the brand new U.S. administration underneath President-elect Donald Trump, who imposed extreme financial sanctions on Tehran throughout his first time period. These sanctions have remained in place, and Iran has continued to counterpoint uranium to ranges near weapons-grade whereas refusing to totally cooperate with U.N. inspectors over its nuclear program.  

However Iran thus far has opted to cease in need of constructing nuclear weapons, and will search for a diplomatic compromise with america and different powers because it tries to regroup, specialists mentioned.

“I feel Iran will suppose twice earlier than weaponizing and can keep the nuclear card as a bargaining chip, and for now try compromises with its international opponents,” Vatanka mentioned.