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• Iran Worldwide reported that Iran offered $500 million price of arms to Armenia, a declare denied by each nations.
• The alleged arms deal has elevated tensions within the Caucasus, with Azerbaijan threatening navy motion and Armenia asserting its proper to self-defense.
• The state of affairs highlights the advanced geopolitical pursuits within the area, with Iran doubtlessly searching for leverage over Azerbaijan and Armenia balancing ties between Iran and the West.

Allegations of Iranian double-dealing are setting the South Caucasus on edge, threatening to disrupt the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace course of at a fragile stage. A tangled internet of pursuits amongst all of the gamers involved is making it significantly troublesome to separate reality from fiction in a supposed arms sale.

The intrigue traces its origins to a July 24 report by a UK-based Iranian opposition media outlet, Iran Worldwide, alleging that Tehran has offered $500 million price of arms, together with suicide drones, to Armenia. The supply for the piece was “a senior navy official within the Center East” who was granted anonymity for safety causes. Iran Worldwide additionally reported that Iranian-Armenian cooperation includes intelligence cooperation, coaching “and the institution of bases on Armenian soil.” 

Iran Worldwide has generated controversy in recent times. In line with an investigation printed by the Guardian, the outlet has obtained funding from an offshore entity with hyperlinks to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In the meantime, a state-affiliated media outlet in Iran labeled Iran Worldwide as a “platform of the Zionist regime [Israel].”

Each Iranian and Armenian officers have denied the arms sale report, which appears to mix bitter Center Jap rivalries with an unsettled Caucasus battle to create a doubtlessly flamable geopolitical combination. 

The mere rumor of an arms deal triggered an uproar in Azerbaijan. Caliber.Az, an outlet thought-about a mouthpiece for Azerbaijan’s Protection Ministry, asserted that the article was “pretend information,” supposed to “derail” Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. These bilateral ties have strengthened considerably over the previous yr, with improvement of the North-South commerce hall performing because the binding agent.

“These claims are completely fabricated,” a commentary printed by Caliber.az said. “It seems that sure actors are intent on sabotaging the burgeoning relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran by spreading false info. This tactic mirrors previous efforts to artificially create crises between the 2 nations.”

On the identical time, the Azerbaijani authorities appeared to hedge its bets in case the report contained not less than a grain of reality, issuing an announcement the day after the publication of the Iran Worldwide account, warning that Armenia’s “systematic” provocations may trigger Baku to resume navy motion as a method of stopping Armenian rearmament.

“The navy workout routines performed by the US in Armenia, the availability of deadly weapons to Armenia by France, and the preliminary part of navy help in quantity of 10 million euros offered to Armenia by the European Union beneath the guise of the European Peace Facility encourage the occupying state – Armenia to hold out such provocations and point out its preparation for one more conflict towards Azerbaijan”, the assertion learn. 

“If these provocative actions towards our nation aren’t stopped, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan will take obligatory response measures utilizing all means at their disposal for the needs of self-defense,” the assertion continued.

There are concerns supporting the notion that the arms-sale report is a bit of disinformation, and others that recommend it might be true. However there is no such thing as a clear strategy to confirm the knowledge.

From Iran’s viewpoint, any such deal would appear to ivolve giant dangers and a relatively low reward. Promoting arms to Armenia would make sure you rile Azerbaijan and Russia, two key commerce companions alongside the burgeoning North-South hall. The strategic partnership between Russia and Armenia has collapsed over the previous yr as Yerevan’s allegiances have shifted Westward. But, the sanctions-bound Iranian authorities may at all times use the additional money generated by a brand new arms deal. Such a sale is also seen as giving Tehran extra leverage in its dealings with Azerbaijan. Baku’s shut strategic relationship with Israel has lengthy rankled Tehran.

From the Armenian perspective, the federal government is keen to bolster its protection capabilities within the wake of the Karabakh conflict and would probably welcome the addition of Iranian drones to its arsenal. On the identical time, strategic engagement with Iran would danger upending its efforts to construct nearer ties to the US and European Union.

The alleged arms deal comes at some extent when peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear on the identical time near the end line, however at a standstill. The Armenian International Ministry, responding to the Azerbaijani assertion, in addition to Baku’s claims of ceasefire violations alongside the border, said it was “the sovereign proper of any nation” to take motion to defend itself.

“The Republic of Armenia doesn’t have every other aim within the discipline of protection and safety past the safety of its internationally acknowledged territory,” the International Ministry mentioned. “Within the means of military reforms, the Republic of Armenia operates completely inside the framework of worldwide regulation.”

By Eurasianet.org

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