Afrigather The NFL Draft begins on Thursday evening and this is likely one of the wildest, least-predictable draft seasons in latest reminiscence. A draft class that includes unbelievable depth, however missing top-end expertise, paired with dangers at each place has left us with a board that no one has any consensuses about.
Yearly we’re hit with these stunning “WTF” moments that make completely no sense. So, forward of the primary spherical listed here are our daring predictions for what may occur within the 2023 NFL Draft.
Groups will let Bijan Robinson fall MUCH decrease than he ought to
It’s not precisely a “daring prediction” to say “a extremely good working again will go later within the draft,” however with regards to Texas’ Bijan Robinson we’ve really hit foolish season. As just lately as this week there have been stable opinions that he’s so good he’s price a high 10 choose, even on the deemphasized working again place — however now we’ve misplaced the plot.
There are some really reputable sources saying that Robinson could actually be the RB2 of this class behind Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. To be clear: This is able to most likely push Robinson out of the primary spherical all collectively.
I don’t assume that may occur, however I do assume an elite playoff crew will be capable to take Robinson within the late 20s. The Payments are such a secure choose at No. 26 that it’s virtually infuriating. Bijan will fall, and the wealthy will get richer. A yr from now individuals will marvel how so many horrible groups whiffed on an elite expertise like this.
Will Levis will both go within the high 10 picks, or be this yr’s “unhappy inexperienced room participant”
The thrill about Levis has been all around the map. As soon as legitimately considered a chance at No. 1, now that’s merely not going to occur. The issue is that everybody is being so coy about their QB preferences that it’s not possible to know the way a lot of the Levis chatter is actual, and the way a lot is imagined.
Right here’s what we do know: Levis is a significant threat. A colossal threat. He doesn’t move any of the pre-draft checks you’d need him to, outdoors of “he has a giant arm, and performed in a pro-style system.” This was adequate for Josh Allen to show into top-of-the-line quarterbacks within the NFL, however for each Josh Allen there’s two or three Kyle Bollers, JP Losmans, or dare we are saying, Jamarcus Russells.
Unhealthy groups take dumb dangers at quarterback. That may very well be sufficient to see Levis taken within the high 10. If he doesn’t, nevertheless, we hit a significant slide into the higher groups within the NFL. The place does Levis go at that time? Would the Buccaneers take him at No. 19? Not until they actually love him. Would the Vikings at No. 23? Probably, however they produce other main defensive wants to deal with.
I predict that the hype behind Levis was smoke and mirrors. We’ll see him fall into the early 20s earlier than a foul, QB-needy crew who was drafting within the high 10 trades as much as get him.
Hendon Hooker will probably be drafted MUCH larger than he deserves
The hype behind Hendon Hooker is uncontrolled, and it’s been progressively selecting up steam as we draw nearer to the draft. At one level Hooker was the stable QB5 on this class, a second spherical shrug of a participant who may grow to be one thing, however most likely received’t.
Now, neglect about it. There’s some actually alarming rumors on the market that Hooker may very well be QB3 on some boards. That might imply a 25-year-old quarterback, who solely excelled in a system that doesn’t translate to the NFL, coming off a torn ACL can be taken within the first 15 picks. That is the sort of transfer that may be a bullet level when a GM is fired, but it surely feels prefer it’s going to occur.
Daring prediction: Hendon Hooker will probably be taken earlier than the Patriots choose at No. 14
Dorian Thompson-Robinson comes off the board Day 2
Heading into the 2023 NFL Scouting Mix, one of many questions I contemplated most was this: Who’s QB5?
As famous above, evidently Hendon Hooker has locked down that spot. In order somebody who focuses on the quarterback place, I’m left questioning who may come off the board subsequent.
The 2 participant I like most following Hooker are Jake Haener from Fresno State, and UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Each match the mildew of long-term backups with starter-level upside — and plus-level starter upside at that — however I’m rising increasingly more intrigued about DTR coming off the board sooner than anticipated.
Thompson-Robinson is a dynamic athlete, however he additionally confirmed timing, rhythm, and anticipation on his throws final season in Chip Kelly’s offense. He’s an skilled starter, having began 4 years for the Bruins, and accomplished almost 70% of his passes a season in the past.
Additionally, take into account this. The previous “Parcells Guidelines” for drafting a quarterback:
- Be a three-year starter
- Be a senior in faculty
- Graduate from faculty
- Begin 30 video games
- Win 23 video games
- Submit a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
- Full at the least 60% of passes thrown
DTR checks each field.
Daring prediction: DTR will probably be drafted by the Seattle Seahawks on Day 2
The 2023 NFL Draft makes historical past on the TE place
Within the historical past of the NFL draft, the best variety of tight ends drafted within the first three rounds is eight. That mark was set again in 2019 when T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr., Drew Pattern, Josh Oliver, Jace Sternberger, Kahale Warring, and Dawson Knox all got here off the board inside the first three rounds.
This draft will break that file.
Previous to the NFL Scouting Mix, Daniel Jeremiah famous that he had 11 tight ends with Day 1 or Day 2 grades. “By way of the variety of guys, I’ve 11 tight ends that I’ve top-three spherical grades on, which is a ridiculous quantity,” Jeremiah said. “It’s only a actually, actually good group.”
Presently there are six tight ends inside the primary three rounds based on NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, however I feel when all is alleged and accomplished, a couple of extra sneak into the primary three rounds, setting a brand new draft file. Gamers to observe in the back of the category embrace Luke Schoonmaker from Michigan, Zack Kuntz from Outdated Dominion, Cameron Latu from Alabama and a favourite of mine, Payne Durham from Purdue.
Daring prediction: Ten tight ends are drafted within the first three rounds
A Star participant will get traded throughout evening 1 of the NFL Draft
Final yr, the NFL Draft was shaken with information of WR AJ Brown getting traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles. We all know how that turned out for Philadelphia, however there may very well be extra star gamers being traded on evening 1 of the Draft this yr as effectively.
Let’s begin in Arizona, the place issues are going nearly in addition to their uniform rollout. Star security Budda Baker requested a commerce again on April 14. He won’t web as massive of a choose haul as Jamal Adams acquired when he was despatched to Seattle by the New York Jets, however a crew needing a do-it-all security may very well be prepared to surrender their first spherical choose. There’s additionally the issue of his contract, as he’s set to grow to be a free agent within the 2024 season and can doubtless web an extension from whichever crew he will get traded to. If we keep within the desert, his teammate Deandre Hopkins has been the middle of commerce talks since possibly February. The percentages he will get traded on evening 1 are a bit of decrease than Baker’s, however along with his pedigree as one of many high receivers within the league he might web the Cardinals a 4th spherical choose.
That brings us to the quarterbacks. It’s trying increasingly more unlikely that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will probably be traded by the draft, so we’ll rule him out. The Packers and the Jets have been watching one another pondering they’re negotiating prefer it’s Succession, however each side actually find yourself trying like Mike and Dwight pointing finger weapons at one another. Aaron Rodgers needs to be a Jet; we all know that for certain. The place each groups have been at odds is over the compensation, and a variety of it has to do with the Jets’ present inventory of picks. With each side coming back to the table with a smooth deadline of Day 2 to get the commerce accomplished (per Adam Schefter), it leads me to imagine that the previous Packer sign caller will probably be on the transfer on evening 1 of the NFL Draft.
Daring Prediction: Budda Baker and Aaron Rodgers get traded on evening 1 of the NFL Draft
Jalen Carter doesn’t fall out of the highest 5
The Jalen Carter draft course of has been an odd and twisting path, to say the least. After coming into the draft course of close to the highest of everybody’s draft boards, Carter has begun to take a slide. A big a part of that is because of the arrest for reckless driving and racing within the dying of Georgia soccer participant Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. Carter entered a plea deal after being charged, and received’t face jail time.
Whereas all of this was occurring, Carter nonetheless needed to work out for scouts and executives. At his professional day, Carter underwhelmed, searching of gasoline and sluggish. Nameless scouts (we’ll get to that later) have referred to as into query his character and love for the sport, and Carter might slide from the place he was projected to go.
On the nameless scouts: the complete premise of scouts throwing rocks and hiding their hand is silly. We give these scouts full capacity to wreck these gamers’ character whereas not placing their title on basically what’s a take in regards to the individual, not the on subject participant. For those who’re going to slander a participant’s character or who they’re as an individual, put your title behind it.
Now again to Carter: steam is selecting again up for Carter to be the choose if he’s there for the Seattle Seahawks. If there’s any crew who doesn’t thoughts gamers with these alleged character points, it’s a crew led by Pete Carroll. On the sphere, Carter is an exceptional participant with the flexibility to destroy a whole gameplan. That’s too good to move up.
Daring prediction: Jalen Carter is the Seattle Seahawks’ draft choose at fifth total
