2024 was a difficult yr for Nigeria’s e-commerce and logistics sectors. Gas costs quadrupled, inflation soared, and companies and clients alike struggled to maintain tempo with skyrocketing prices.

“Everybody was in survival mode,” mentioned Ope Onaboye, CEO of Renda, the one Nigerian logistics startup that raised VC funding—$1.9 million—in 2024. 

We requested eight founders and buyers to look into the crystal ball and predict what 2025 holds for the trade. Regardless of the previous yr’s challenges, many are optimistic concerning the future.

Trade consultants imagine that the Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries will decrease vitality prices, easing operational prices throughout the availability chain.  

Others level to international provide chain insurance policies and improvements round meals waste administration as components that might scale back meals costs—one of many key drivers of Nigeria’s headline inflation. 

There’s additionally hope that extra e-commerce and logistics firms will obtain monetary stability by growing exports to earn greenback revenues. Extra mergers and acquisitions are anticipated after MaxAB and Wasoko determined to affix forces in 2024 to create a class king. 

What’s a dialog about 2025 with out synthetic intelligence? Not less than three founders say  AI will considerably change processes in lots of on-line marketplaces. 

Listed below are the predictions—and the prophets:

Prediction 1: The  yr of social commerce 

Luther Lawoyin, CEO of Pricepally:

The hole between on-line and offline retail will shrink even additional. Digital-first retailers will open bodily shops, and brick-and-mortar companies will spend money on e-commerce. This hybrid strategy will dominate as customers search handy and reliable buying experiences, mixing the very best of each worlds. Platforms like WhatsApp and Instagram will play a much bigger position, particularly for small companies. They provide reasonably priced, direct methods to interact clients, making them important for scaling and reaching new markets.

Prediction 2: The yr of  pivots, mergers and acquisitions

Samuel Okwuada, CEO  of  Remedial Well being:

Sadly, the availability chain sector in Nigeria will proceed to face the identical challenges as in recent times. International disruptions, native foreign money fluctuations and inflation. I foresee additional consolidation within the sector versus the cross-border growth that hasn’t labored at scale for a lot of. 

Ope Onaboye, CEO of  Renda:

Many firms will wrestle as they haven’t raised adequate capital. This may doubtless result in mergers of smaller startups. Logistics firms that function software-only fashions will pivot to turn into infrastructure-focused, technology-enabled options. It’s because the nation shouldn’t be but prepared for pure-software fashions. Sensible firms will begin on the lookout for different income streams as there’s little promise of investor curiosity within the sector.

Prediction 3: The yr of elevated export  and reorganisation of worldwide provide chains 

Iyin Aboyeji, founding father of Future Africa and Speed up Africa:

I’m bullish on exports. We’ll see vital progress in meals exports, together with produce like yam, to fulfill the rising demand for African meals overseas. 

Kachi Izukanne, CEO of  TradeDepot:

Shifts in management throughout the US and Europe are creating alternatives and challenges for Africa. The reorganisation of worldwide provide chains might open new pathways for African companies, however provided that policymakers and corporations act shortly to handle infrastructure gaps and enhance commerce effectivity. With out motion, Africa dangers being sidelined in a aggressive international setting.

The rising international demand for ethnic meals and Made-in-Africa merchandise gives a transparent alternative for African exporters. Manufacturers that meet worldwide high quality and consistency requirements, paired with compelling storytelling, are well-positioned to seize these rising markets. For native and international gamers, 2025 can be about balancing adaptability with a strategic focus to navigate these intersecting challenges and alternatives.

Adeola Ayoola, CEO of Famasi:

The political adjustments this yr, particularly associated to commerce and exports, will doubtless trigger extra uncertainty. New regulatory necessities and altering border insurance policies might immediate companies to give attention to optimising provide chains and securing exports. 

Prediction 4: The yr of greenback income

Iyin Aboyeji, founding father of Future Africa and Speed up Africa:

Retail markets will diverge into two: a dollar-based market for many who earn in {dollars} and a naira-based market for many who earn in naira. Infrastructure options can be wanted to accommodate each. 

Prediction 5: Decrease prices, increased predictability

Luther Lawoyin, CEO of Pricepally:

With elevated manufacturing on the Dangote Refinery, the operational NNPCL refinery, and different upcoming refineries, vitality prices will doubtless stabilise and even drop. This may scale back logistics bills, enhance predictability, and increase operational effectivity. 

Higher infrastructure and an elevated give attention to native manufacturing will scale back import dependency, shortening provide chains and chopping prices.

Prediction 6: The yr of AI

Eghosa Omogui, founding father of EchoVC:

We’re witnessing a significant shift with AI. In e-commerce, anticipate widespread deployment of AI brokers for customer support and semi-autonomous transactions. These improvements will scale back client nervousness round spending, with AI instruments providing finances forecasts and worth assessments. 

Adeola Ayoola, CEO of Famasi: 

Extra pharmacies will leverage AI and buyer consumption information to conduct predictive analyses and optimize stock stocking selections. AI brokers are poised to play an important position in main care, decreasing the reliance on human labour for managing frequent well being points just like the frequent chilly or minor residence accidents. 

Akinropo Taiwo, HeyFood:

Globally, we’ll witness vital AI adoption throughout the retail trade, automating and streamlining quite a few processes. This may cowl customer-facing points like ordering channels and communications and back-end operations like stock administration.

Prediction 7: The yr of decrease meals costs

Uka Eje, CEO of ThriveAgric:

The agricultural sector will entice extra funding in 2025, easing meals inflation.

Moreover, if rural insecurity is solved, we are able to anticipate extra farmers to return to their farms and interact in large-scale farming. This may improve agricultural productiveness and scale back meals costs nationwide, making meals extra accessible for all.

Eghosa Omogui, founding companion of EchoVC

Meals waste, reaching $4-9 billion yearly, is commonly framed as a logistics drawback, but it surely’s additionally a key driver of meals costs. Decreasing meals waste by half might decrease meals prices by 10-20%. We’re conducting non-public experiments to sort out meals waste and anticipate to see main improvements on this space in 2025.