The Chargers are on the road again Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. Kickoff is at 10 a.m. (PT) from AT&T Stadium.
The Chargers-Cowboys betting line shows the Bolts are slight underdogs on Sunday.
Here are five final thoughts ahead of Week 16.
1. A Chargers clinch?
And while there are four different scenarios that could play out, three involves the Bolts winning and the other includes a Chargers tie. The scenarios also rely on the result of the Raiders-Texans and Colts-49ers games.
In other words, the Chargers essentially need to win Sunday in order to punch their ticket to the dance.
How is Chargers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh approaching the opportunity ahead?
“Win. I know the scenarios are win and something else happens,” Harbaugh said. “So the big part of that is winning.”
Entering Week 16, the Chargers are 10-4 and in the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
According to The Athletic, the Bolts currently hold a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs, a number that goes to greater than 99 percent with a win. A Bolts loss Sunday drops those odds to 93 percent.
Plus, keep in mind that a Chargers win keeps alive the possibility of an AFC West title even if Denver wins Sunday.
The Cowboys enter with a 6-7-1 record and hold slim playoff chances, but the Chargers expect their best effort in Week 16. Of note, Dallas would be eliminated from playoff contention if Philadelphia wins Saturday.
“This is a team that’s still playing for their livelihoods to be playing in January, so we know it’s going to be a playoff-type game, playoff-type atmosphere,” Donte Jackson said of the Cowboys. “That’s a great fan base that they have there in Dallas so we just got to show up ready to play and not really worry if you do this or if they do that.
“It’s not going to matter what everybody else does, it’s just going to matter about what we’ve done. That’s really the message,” Jackson added.
With three games left, the Chargers are close to going back to the playoffs for the second year in a row under Harbaugh.
But the Bolts know they still have plenty of work to do, beginning Sunday in the Lone Star State.
“It’s always a thought of going out and winning the football game,” Khalil Mack said of potentially clinching a playoff spot. “Whatever comes with it, comes with it.”
2. Daunting Dallas offense
Harbaugh didn’t mince words about the Cowboys earlier this week.
“I think it’s arguably the best offense we’ve played,” Harbaugh said.
And when Chargers Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter was asked about the group, he rattled off a handful of eye-popping statistics.
Dallas currently ranks first in yards per game (369.9) and passing yards per game (276.1) and are fourth in points per game (29.1).
“Yeah, they’re playing at a really high level,” Minter said with a smile.
According to Mack, quarterback Dak Prescott leads the charge on that side of the ball.
“No. 4, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league,” Mack said.
It also helps that Prescott has a pair of game-breaking receivers in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, both of whom rank in the top eight in receiving yards.
Pickens is at 1,212 yards while Lamb has 976 yards, and both players average at least 15.0 yards per reception.
“Those guys are big plays waiting to happen no matter if you’re getting the ball downfield to them, you’re doing something quick,” Jackson said. “Whatever you’re doing, you’re getting the ball in Nos. 3 and 88’s hands.”
“And when you’ve got a quarterback playing at the level Dak is playing at, anybody can be a weapon at any given moment,” Jackson added. “We just got to be really detailed stop a big-play offense from making big plays. That’s a challenge in itself.”
We haven’t even mentioned running back Javonte Williams (1,113 rushing yards and 10 scores) or tight end Jake Ferguson (77 catches for 570 yards and seven touchdowns).
Simply put, the Cowboys offense is downright explosive, a reason they are tied for fourth with an offensive EPA of 0.090 per play. Dallas’ offensive success rate of 46.9 percent ranks sixth in the league.
“Man, a lot of playmakers,” Derwin James, Jr. said.
2 / 160
#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
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#0 | LB | Daiyan Henley
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#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
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#1 | WR | Quentin Johnston
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#2 | DB | Elijah Molden
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#2 | DB | Elijah Molden
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#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
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#3 | S | Derwin James, Jr.
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#5 | QB | Trey Lance
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#5 | QB | Trey Lance
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#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
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#6 | LB | Denzel Perryman
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#8 | QB | Omarion Hampton
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#8 | QB | Omarion Hampton
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#9 | WR | Tre’ Harris
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#9 | WR | Tre’ Harris
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#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
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#10 | QB | Justin Herbert
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#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
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#11 | K | Cameron Dicker
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#12 | WR | Derius Daivs
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#12 | WR | Derius Daivs
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#13 | WR | Keenan Allen
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#13 | WR | Keenan Allen
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#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
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#15 | WR | Ladd McConkey
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#16 | P | JK Scott
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#16 | P | JK Scott
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#20 | CB | Cam Hart
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#20 | CB | Cam Hart
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#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
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#23 | S | Tony Jefferson
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#24 | CB | Benjamin St-Juste
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#24 | CB | Benjamin St-Juste
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#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
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#26 | CB | Donte Jackson
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#27 | S | RJ Mickens
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#27 | S | RJ Mickens
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#28 | RB | Hassan Haskins
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#28 | RB | Hassan Haskins
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#29 | CB | Tarheeb Still
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#29 | CB | Tarheeb Still
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#30 | RB | Kimani Vidal
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#30 | RB | Kimani Vidal
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#33 | DB | Deane Leonard
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#33 | DB | Deane Leonard
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#40 | S | Kendall Williamson
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#40 | S | Kendall Williamson
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#43 | LB | Troy Dye
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#43 | LB | Troy Dye
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#44 | FB/DL | Scott Matlock
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#44 | FB/DL | Scott Matlock
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#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
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#45 | OLB | Tuli Tuipulotu
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#46 | CB | Nikko Reed
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#46 | CB | Nikko Reed
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#47 | LS | Josh Harris
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#47 | LS | Josh Harris
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#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
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#48 | OLB | Bud Dupree
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#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
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#52 | OLB | Khalil Mack
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#53 | LB | Del’Shawn Phillips
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#53 | OLB | Del’Shawn Phillips
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#54 | OLB | Kyle Kennard
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#54 | OLB | Kyle Kennard
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#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
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#58 | LB | Marlowe Wax
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#64 | OL | Trevor Penning
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#64 | OL | Trevor Penning
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#66 | T | Bobby Hart
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#66 | T | Bobby Hart
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#68 | OL | Jamaree Salyer
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#68 | OL | Jamaree Salyer
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#73 | G | Mekhi Becton
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#73 | OL | Mekhi Becton
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#74 | T | Austin Deculus
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#74 | OL | Austin Deculus
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#75 | C | Bradley Bozeman
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#75 | C | Bradley Bozeman
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#77 | G | Zion Johnson
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#77 | G | Zion Johnson
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#78 | C | Andre James
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#78 | C | Andre James
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#79 | G/T | Trey Pipkins III
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#79 | G/T | Trey Pipkins III
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#83 | TE | Tyler Conklin
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#83 | TE | Tyler Conklin
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#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
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#84 | WR | KeAndre Lambert-Smith
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#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
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#86 | TE | Oronde Gadsden
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#89 | TE | Will Dissly
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#89 | TE | Will Dissly
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#90 | DL | Tear Tart
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#90 | DL | Tear Tart
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#91 | DL | Da’Shawn Hand
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#91 | DL | Da’Shawn Hand
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#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
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#92 | DL | Justin Eboigbe
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#93 | DL | Otito Ogbonnia
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#93 | DL | Otito Ogbonnia
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#98 | OLB | Odafe Oweh
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#98 | OLB | Odafe Oweh
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#99 | DT | Jamaree Caldwell
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#99 | DT | Jamaree Caldwell
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#7 | RB | DJ Uiagalelei
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#7 | RB | DJ Uiagalelei
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#31 | S | Marcus Williams
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#31 | S | Marcus Williams
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32 | RB | Jaret Patterson
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#32 | RB | Jaret Patterson
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#34 | RB | Amar Johnson
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#34 | RB | Amar Johnson
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#35 | S | Marcus Maye
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#35 | S | Marcus Maye
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#37 | CB | Isas Waxter
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#37 | CB | Isas Waxter
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#49 | TE | Thomas Yassmin
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#49 | TE | Thomas Yassmin
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#50 | LB | Emany Johnson
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#50 | LB | Emany Johnson
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#62 | C/G | Sam Mustipher
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#62 | C/G | Sam Mustipher
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#67 | OL | Foster Sarell
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#67 | OL | Foster Sarell
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#71 | G | Branson Taylor
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#71 | G | Branson Taylor
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81 | WR | Dalevon Campbell
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81 | WR | Dalevon Campbell
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#82 | WR | JaQuae Jackson
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#82 | WR | JaQuae Jackson
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#94 | DL | TeRah Edwards
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#94 | DL | TeRah Edwards
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#95 | DL | Kyle Peko
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#95 | DL | Kyle Peko
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#97 | OLB | Garmon Randolph
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#97 | OLB | Garmon Randolph
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#22 | RB | Najee Harris
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#22 | RB | Najee Harris
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#25 | LB | Junior Colson
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#25 | LB | Junior Colson
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#37 | CB | Jordan Oladokun
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#37 | CB | Jordan Oladokun
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#39 | CB | Eric Rogers
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#39 | CB | Eric Rogers
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#42 | TE | Tucker Fisk
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#42 | TE | Tucker Fisk
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#69 | DL | Josh Fuga
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#69 | DL | Josh Fuga
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#70 | T | Rashawn Slater
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#70 | T | Rashawn Slater
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#76 | T | Joe Alt
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#76 | T | Joe Alt
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#67 | T | Savion Washington
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#67 | T | Savion Washington
3. Respect for the Cowboys defense
Greg Roman has said recently that he doesn’t care about what stats the Chargers offense is putting up these days, instead only worrying about the on-field result.
The Chargers Offensive Coordinator is taking the same mindset into Sunday’s game against a Dallas defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.
Entering Week 16, Dallas ranks 29th in yards allowed per game (374.9) and yards allowed per play (6.03), and are 31st in points allowed per game (30.0).
The Cowboys are 32nd in passing yards allowed per game (254.8) and 30th in passing yards per play (7.57).
Dallas is also 30th in third-down defense (46.47 percent) and tied for 30th in red-zone defense (72.22 percent).
And on a more advanced level, the Cowboys rank 30th in defensive EPA per play (0.117) and are 31st in success rate allowed (48.23 percent).
Roman’s take?
“I think the beginning of the season was really tough for them statistically moving up to the beginning of October,” Roman said. “Then you start to see them play the Eagles, then play the Chiefs, some other teams, too.
“They had some really good moments and some players that can really dominate their job at times,” Roman added. “It’s all over the film and the idea you’re going to factor in what happened in September into this equation is ludicrous. That’s a completely different defense once they made some moves and it’s a totally different dynamic.
“I don’t even care about what happened in September. I’ve peeked at it, but I’ve thrown it out and looking at what’s happened recently with their new personnel,” Roman added.
The headliner of that new personnel, of course, is defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who was acquired in a November trade with the Jets.
Williams, a former All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler, has 16 tackles and 1.5 sacks in five games and leads all NFL defensive tackles with a 20.3 percent pass-rush win rate.
Something to keep an eye on: Williams was in the concussion protocol this week and is questionable for Sunday.
4. Matlock aiding run game
Back in August, Scott Matlock was prepping for his second season as a fullback when Harbaugh and his father, Jack, approached him at training camp.
The trio had a conversation about how to improve Matlock’s blocking, especially when on the move across the formation.
“When you come in, ‘Ba-boop, ba-boop,'” Jim Harbaugh recalled his father saying as he mimicked a blocking motion. “Like, hit and roll the hips. That whole rhythm of approaching the block with speed, then the contact and the rolling of the hips, all in one motion.
“That’s the way Jack Harbaugh framed it. Ba-boop, ba-boop,” Jim Harbaugh said.
Matlock earlier this week remembered the encounter.
“It was Coach Harbaugh and his dad. He gave me a little nugget of advice,” Matlock said. “That was kinda cool because that’s someone who knows a lot of ball and has been very successful. To have him coach me up was pretty cool.”
Matlock has taken the advice to heart as he looks better as a blocker this season. His presence on offense has helped aid the Bolts run game, especially in recent weeks as Roman has leaned into the ground game.
Since Week 13, the Chargers have ran the ball on 55 percent of their plays, the second-highest mark in the league.
A few factors — namely Justin Herbert’s broken left hand and the return of Omarion Hampton — have played a role in that.
“It’s an obvious shift that has taken place based on the circumstances,” Roman said this week.
The Chargers have also gone with more heavy bodies up front as they used an extra offensive lineman for 19 plays in Sunday’s win over the Chiefs. The Bolts had used a sixth lineman 25 times in the 11 games prior to Sunday.
“Tried to get medieval a little bit,” Roman said, “Get those big bodies out there and just lean on them for four quarters.”
With six offensive linemen and a tight end on the field, adding Matlock means even more beef against opposing defenses.
“When you put big people out there, that’s kind of your only goal. When we call that out there, we know what the mindset is and the mentality is,” Matlock said.
With three games left, the Chargers seem to have found an formula that could sustain them in the playoffs if they get there.
Run the ball, control time of possession and make timely plays in the passing game.
Matlock, who also had two receptions Sunday, could be a key piece to that whole equation.
“I think he’s really improved. I think he’s had his best games recently by far,” Roman said. “I think he’s put the thinking on the side and just going taking care of business at the point of contact.”
Harbaugh added: “Defensive tackle transitioning to NFL tight end/fullback, that’s a big leap. I think he’s done a great job. He really gives our team a physicality when you have a fullback that’s 300 pounds.”
“When we’re able to run the ball really well, we’re able to play really well.”
5. Williams ready at safety
The Chargers found themselves shorthanded at safety in Week 15.
With Elijah Molden out with a hamstring injury, the position group took more hits as RJ Mickens left with a shoulder injury and Tony Jefferson was ejected.
Enter veteran Marcus Williams, who stepped in and played 43 snaps in his season debut.
Chargers Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter said this week that even though Williams has been on the practice squad since late October, he stayed hungry and ready to go.
“We really try to coach those guys up, give them our roles, teach them our coverages, team them how we operate,” Minter said.
He later added: “He’s really stayed engaged … and then he played probably every snap in the second half, definitely every snap in the fourth quarter.”
At one point Sunday, James and Williams were the only safeties on the field.
“Stay ready so you don’t have to get ready,” Williams said. “I’ve been asking a lot of questions so that when I did go out there, I knew what to do.”
With Mickens out this weekend and Molden questionable, there’s a chance the Chargers will need to rely on Williams again as they chase their 11th win of the year.